Reports: Obama Knew About Secret Iran Facility During Transition, Experts Pushed Engagement Anyway With Pro-Iran Pretexts
The stuff about the transition comes from what Knoller's reporting, and in retrospect it makes sense. If the NIE estimated that there were 10-15 hidden facilities - and they did - presumably they had explicit game on at least a few of them. Nice of Obama to trot out surrogate after surrogate to threaten Israel against taking out the facilities, always under the pretense that he had things under control. Speaking of which, how did Iran get wind that their cover was blown?
As for Russia, they still see Iran as critical to their economic health, so don't expect much from Moscow. Earlier this week, they sounded fatalistic about new sanctions, and some wondered if Obama hadn't worked out some quid pro quo based on the shift on missile defense in eastern Europe. Instead, it looks as though Obama may have shared this intel with Russia, which is probably how Iran found out about it.
Since this post is supposed to be about engagement and the faux sophisticates who fabricate pretexts for it, here are the Sept. 8 and Sept. 19 LA Times editorials urging "conversations" with Iran. In between the paper published a third pro-engagement Opinion, this one about how Iran was ever-so-close to moderation.
The drip drip drip consistency of the engagement push might cause some people to suspect that a loose group of pro-Iran journalists, intellectuals, and politicians were manipulating the news cycle. But the alternative - that the LA Times is filled with morons who didn't get the "no one really believes engagement will work any more" memo - shouldn't be totally dismissed.
Taking a step back: I was always kind of fond of the left's anodyne Bush-era assurances about how Iran could never get their centrifuges running. There were all kinds of reasons: contamination of the equipment, impurity of the uranium, the misalignment of the moons of Saturn, etc. It was the specificity coupled with the bluster in the context of the mindblowing stupidity that was always so delightful.
This current crop of Iran apologists is just unimaginative.
They're Clinton-era throwbacks. Back then pro-engagement journalists and academics didn't have to pretend that Iran couldn't make nukes because they were able to pretend that Iran wouldn't make nukes. Iranian pragmatists interested in a "dialogue of civilizations" were going to take over. Or Iranian conservatives who prioritized economic survival were going to make concessions. Or Khamenei was going to balance hardline Iranian messianics against hardline IRG forces, opening the potential for a divide and conquer strategy. Or something.
Of course the exact opposite happened and it turned out that modern-day Tehranology was about as accurate as Cold War Kremlinology. So for a while they gave up divining Iranian intentions and switched to fantasizing about Iranian capabilities.
But apparently everything old really is new again. So you get breathless reports like "Soltanieh says Iran's ready for talks" from Yglesias and FP Passpost, only the latter of which bothered updating when that turned out to be false. Or you get "pragmatists will give up nukes" from anonymous "Western diplomats" coupled with "Ahmadinejad and his hardline cabinet are facing opposition," right before that cabinet got overwhelming legislative support and Khamenei's full backing. How original!
At times like this, I like to take heart in Roger Cohen's assurances: Iran is indeed teetering on the brink of change.
References:
* US officials say Obama first told of Iran [@markknoller]
* Flashback: Clenched With 10-15 Secret Nuke Facilities According To The 2007 NIE [IIFSC]
* Super-Secret Obama Official: Israeli Self-Defense Against Iran Will Detonate The US-Israel Relationship [MR]
* The U.S. and Iran: It's time to talk [LAT]
* U.S., Iran: So much to talk about
* Rethinking our Iran strategy
* The "Iran Lobby" Moves Into The White House [MR]
* Khamenei Seizes Control Of Iranian Republican Guard Militias, Installs Son As Head Thug [MR]
* Iran Interested in Nuclear Talks Without Preconditions
* Iran envoy says reports Iran ready for nuclear dialogue cite from letter (UPDATED)
* Iran 'pragmatists' proposed nuclear halt-diplomats
* Ahmadinejad struggles with crisis of authority
* Iran assembly approves most of hard-line Cabinet
* Khamenei 'urged Iran MPs' to approve cabinet
* Turns Out, Iran's "Moderate" Candidate Started Their Nuke Program [MR]
Previously:
* Smug Liberal Sophistication Untroubled By Undeniable Evidence That Hardliners Are Winning In Iran
* Diplomatic Sophistication Heartbreak: Tension Between Iranian Political Factions A Little Exaggerated
* Iranian Cleric: Put A Bullet In Livni's Head (Plus: Smug Liberal Sophistication Unperturbed By Spectacularly Wrong Iran Predictions, Failed Anti-Iran Efforts)
