During the Clinton administration the pro-engagement crowd was all about "reaching out to Khatami" in order to "bolster the moderates" electorally. So - over the objections of conservatives who said it would be a gift to Iranian hardliners - the Clinton administration spent some time in abject apology. Iranian moderates were bolstered so much they got thrown out of power.

Suddenly electoral considerations didn't matter to Iran experts. Conservatives who suggested that Iran was probably an apocalyptic state because the President was obviously an apocalyptic nutjob were declared desperately unnuanced. Instead the game was to determine "who had Khamenei's ear" and to empower "conservative pragmatists." Those pragmatists were ostensibly preferable because they will only start nuclear wars if they think they can win them. Now of course they do think they can win them. Different post though.

So having focused on electoral considerations and moderates, Iran experts shifted to pretexts based on palace intrigue and conservative pragmatists. The only problem was that this new pro-engagement line was also wishful thinking. It's been obvious for a while that Khamenei is either personally committed to the Ahmadinejad-style fanatics or is powerless to stop them. At least now we know which of the two it is:

The son of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has taken control of the militia being used to crush the protest movement, according to a senior Iranian source. The source, a politician with strong connections to the security apparatus, said that the leading role being played by Mojtaba Khamenei had dismayed many of the country's senior clerics, conservative politicians and Revolutionary Guard generals.

But these conservatives are reluctant to challenge the Khameneis openly out of fear that any conflict would destabilise the Islamic Republic and weaken Iran in the region. Instead they will use their positions in the organs of state to make it hard for the supreme leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to govern... [A source] said Mojtaba had played a leading role in orchestrating Ahmadinejad's disputed election victory on 12 June and had led the backlash against protests through direct control of street militias, known as basiji.

Looks like Khamenei has some influence within the IRG after all. Maybe the guy who fought during the Islamic Revolution as a true believe and took hold of Iran after Khomeini's death as a true believer - maybe he's actually a true believer. Stranger things have happened.

References:
* But, but . . . We've DONE All That [Ledeen / NRO]
* Los Angeles Times Dishonest about Pentagon-Funded Report, Recommends Israel Disarm [MR]
* Khamenei's son takes control of Iran's anti-protest militia [Guardian]

Previously:
* Liberal Foreign Policy Experts: This Ahmadinejad Reelection Was Just So Unpredictable!
* Iranian Cleric: Put A Bullet In Livni's Head (Plus: Smug Liberal Sophistication Unperturbed By Spectacularly Wrong Iran Predictions, Failed Anti-Iran Efforts)
* Foreign Policy Experts Freak Out Over Biden's Gaffetastic "Green Light" For An Israeli Attack On Iran