Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part - I thought she was McCain's best choice before he picked her, I thought she was a great candidate after he picked her, and I thought she'd make a good President some day - but really? The career of a 45 year old woman who is beloved by an increasingly alienated conservative base is over because she says she's going to take care of her kids? Really?

There are any number of paths that Palin could take back into national politics.

Here's one: she waits two years, gets herself named an Olin/Scaife/Bradley/whatever Energy Policy Fellow at Claremont/Heritage/AEI/whatever, and publishes for a year before and a year after Obama's reelection. Now there's a Republican party that just lost to a post-health care, post-stimulus, post-cap-and-trade Democratic party. There's credible talk about a permanent Democratic majority. Palin spends the next three years fundraising and mounting a credible challenge.

Here's another: she waits four years and reenters national politics in the aftermath of an Obama reelection. The 2012 GOP primaries were a bloodbath between Mitt, who had no appeal to the base, and Huck, who had no appeal to small government conservatives. Palin's speech begins: "Four years ago I left national politics to take care of my family. We're an extremely close-knit and warm bunch. If I had remained governor or run for national office, the only thing I could have given Willow during high school was the ugliness of national politics. But now she's grown up - Todd and I are so proud of her - and she's off to college. In addition to my family, of course, I love and adore my country. I know that the best way I can serve America today is to return to national politics and to help rebuild my party and restore pride to our country."

Listen. This resignation obviously wasn't the most strategic way to set up a 2016 run. But it hardly closes it off. Two elections are a political eternity. Palin will be just over 50 when the runup to 2016 begins.

Why is she resigning? We know at least two things: (1) this makes no sense politically, meaning it's either a scandal or a health issue (2) Palin tweeted that her reason was "good news." If it's good news it can't be a scandal or a health issue, unless that health issue is that she's pregnant. My very first guess was pregnancy, in which case mazel tov except she's going to get slammed as "irresponsible" for getting pregnant after giving birth to Trig.

References:
* 2012 or 2016? [Goldberg / NRO]
* Is Palin's national political career over? [Hot Air]
* WOW: Palin Resigning In a Few Weeks [Geraghty]

Previously:
* Polls Being Manipulated Through Statistical Methods, Death Threats (Plus: Obama Supporters Wallowing In Anti-Palin Murder Fantasies, Shooting At Conservatives)
* Time For Another "Liberals Bragging About Their Pathological Hatred For Palin" Post
* Dick Morris: Of Course Palin Was A Great Pick