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The WH's Eight-Step Plan For Detonating The US-Israel Relationship

Plan

It's technically Stephen Walt's plan, from his FP blog. But it's obviously not something he personally brainstormed in one sitting. These ideas have been percolating for years, getting developed informally by anti-Israel partisans around water coolers, in hallways, and at dinner tables.

The pro-Iranian academics and experts behind them - now safely ensconced in the White House - spent the last few years stewing on the sidelines in university departments and think tanks. Since they couldn't spend all of their effort on vaguely anti-Semitic and academically indefensible polemics, they had plenty of time left over to craft an agenda for the next Democratic President. So after many conversations - no doubt punctuated by exasperated hand waving and outraged tongue clucking - this is roughly what they came up with:

The question is: if the Netanyahu/Lieberman government remains intransigent, what should Obama do? Are there usable sources of leverage that the United States could employ to nudge Israel away from the vision of "Greater Israel" and towards a genuine two-state solution? Here are a few ideas.

1. Cut the aid package? ... [T]hat's not where I'd start. Instead, I'd consider a few other options, such as:
2. Change the Rhetoric. The Obama administration could begin by using different language to describe certain Israeli policies. While reaffirming America's commitment to Israel's existence as a Jewish-majority state, it could stop referring to settlement construction as "unhelpful,"
3. Support a U.N. Resolution Condemning the Occupation.... If the Obama administration wanted to send a clear signal that it was unhappy with Israel's actions, it could sponsor a resolution condemning the occupation and calling for a two-state solution.
4. Downgrade existing arrangements for "strategic cooperation." ... such a step would surely get the attention of Israel's security establishment.
5. Reduce U.S. purchases of Israeli military equipment. ... Obama could instruct Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to slow or decrease these purchases, which would send an unmistakable signal that it was no longer "business-as-usual."
6. Get tough with private organizations that support settlement activity. ... Just as the United States has gone after charitable contributions flowing to terrorist organizations, the U.S. Treasury could crack down on charitable organizations (including those of some prominent Christian Zionists) that are supporting these illegal activities.
7. Place more limits on U.S. loan guarantees.
8. Encourage other U.S. allies to use their influence too. ... we could quietly encourage the EU not to upgrade its relations with Israel until it had agreed to end the occupation.
I don't think Obama needs to employ all of these steps --and certainly not all at once -- but the United States clearly has plenty of options if pressure turns out to be necessary.

In order: the Obama administration has gone ballistic over settlements, a quixotic reason over which to detonate an alliance. At the UN, Susan Rice is gearing up to do what Susan Rice does. There are rumors of a massive downgrade in security cooperation, in the form of blocking Apache sales. Private pro-Israel groups have been forcefully told that they have to share space with objectively anti-Israel organizations like J-Street and the Israel Policy Forum.

The White House has been leaking to every reporter that it can find that it's reconsidering loan guarantees. Even a billion dollar aid cut - which Walt hinted should wait until leftist Jewish groups diluted AIPAC's base - has been floated.

So that leaves only cutting off purchases and wrangling the EU. Fearless prediction: reports of European pressure will leak before anything happens with weapons purchases. EU diplomats just won't be unable to contain themselves.

Pretty amazing though. Obama's close knit group of foreign policy advisers - who during the election promised to up the pressure on Israel after years of figuring out how to best do it - are upping the pressure on Israel. Almost as if, given the chance, ideologues will try to implement their agendas.

There's never been anything insidious or mysterious about this. Obama's foreign policy team is totally committed to the two dogmas of foreign policy faux sophistication: linkage and the "if Israel only..." fetish. They believe that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the source rather than a symptom of Middle East pathologies and they believe that it could be settled if Israel made more concessions. Ultimately, they think that the current level of US support for Israel is a net negative for American interests. They're wrong, but fair enough.

The political point is that all this was blisteringly obvious during the campaign. Obama got his informal sense of the Middle East from radical anti-Israel academics. His formal training has been by way of anti-Israel foreign policy aides. He wasn't trying to alienate the future Israeli Prime Minister when he sneered at "pro-Likud approaches to Israel." The line came to him casually because, in the hallways and faculty lounges of Chicago, "Likudnik" is an unremarkable synonym for "extremist" He just didn't know it was a thing.

During the election, though, people who ought to have known better were like "you have to be a total idiot peddling lunatic conspiracy fantasies to believe that Obama is anything but staunchly pro-Israel." Everyone expects partisan hacks like the NJDC to publish their typically dishonest "don't listen to wingnuts" talking points, the better to give leftists pretexts for unblinking party loyalty. That's what they do.

But Jeffrey Goldberg contemptuously instructing American Jews to get over their paranoia? Dershowitz going to the mat on "Obama's anti-Israel aides won't affect US policy?" Marty Peretz subsequently defending Susan Rice on quite literally zero grounds? These are serious people. They understand how institutions work. Decisions are made not just by the people in the room but by the people who write the reports used by the people in the room.

Many of Obama's top officials and aides - from the UN ambassador to the NSA Chief - have long been institutionally committed to downgrading the US-Israel relationship. Their sentiments and intentions weren't exactly the 2008 election's best kept secret.

The "what were they thinking" question is already a little bit tired. But it'd be interesting to know what Obama's pro-Israel supporters are thinking now.

References:
* Can the United States put pressure on Israel?: A user's guide [Walt]
* The "Iran Lobby" Moves Into The White House
* Four Theories Why Obama Is Throwing Britain Under The Bus [MR]
* Overstating Jewish Power [Hitchens]
* A follow-up on the Israel Lobby [Drezner]
* U.S. wants no more Jewish settlement growth, Clinton says [LAT]
* Are we about to ditch Israel at the UN? [American Thinker]
* Administration blocks helicopters for Israel due to civilian casulties in Gaza [World Tribune]
* Transition's Jewish meeting brings in peace groups [Politico]
* Of Course: "Pro-Israel" J-Street Is More Anti-Israel Than Israel's Sworn Enemies, Equates Israeli Self-Defense With Hamas Violence [MR]
* U.S. Weighs Tactics on Israeli Settlement [NYT]
* Netanyahu defies Obama call for settlement freeze [Reuters]
* Pro-Obama Jewish Groups: The Pre-1967 Arab Stranglehold On Israel Was "Pretty Wonderful" [MR]
* U.S. may cut $1b in loan guarantees to Israel over West Bank settlements [Ha'aretz]
* Indyk: Of Course Obama Is Going To Pressure Israel [MR]
* Rice: Failure Of Peace Process Is Israel's Fault (Plus: The Two Dogmas Of Foreign Policy Faux Sophistication) [MR]
* 70 Percent Of American Jews Ready To Say "We Didn't Know" When Obama Detonates US-Israel Alliance (Plus: They Most Definitely Know) [MR]
* Obama Now Actively Channeling Rabid Anti-Israel Academics, Adopting Their Dumbest Anti-Israel Euphemisms [MR]
* So That's Where Obama Learned To Talk Like An Obsessed Anti-Semitic Academic [MR]
* NJDC'S Guide to Responding to Obama, Clinton, and Edwards Smears aimed at Jewish Voters [NJDC]
* NJDC Tool Aaron Keyak Helpfully Illustrates How Liberal Activists Sneeringly Cocoon Themselves In Asinine Arguments And Dishonest Smears [MR]
* Obama Shill Tells Jews To Get Over Their "Obama Paranoia" [MR]
* Dershowitz defends Obama to NY Jews [JPost]
* Marty Peretz: Based On All Available Evidence I Disagree With Susan Rice, Who Is Nonetheless Awesome In Every Way (Plus: Misguided Victim-Complex Paranoia On The Pro-Israel Right) [MR]

Previously:
* Smug Liberal Sophistication Untroubled By Undeniable Evidence That Hardliners Are Winning In Iran
* Diplomatic Sophistication Heartbreak: Tension Between Iranian Political Factions A Little Exaggerated
* Smug Liberal Sophistication Undisturbed By Decades Of Disastrously Wrong Domestic And International Predictions

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  • Omri Ceren is a PhD candidate studying Rhetoric at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication. He lives in downtown Los Angeles.

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