Old expression: once is a happenstance, twice is a coincidence, third time is enemy action. Technically we're still at coincidence...

At least three Katyusha rockets were fired from Lebanon at northern Israel on Wednesday morning, reigniting fears of a second front opening during Israel's offensive against Hamas in Gaza... Hours after the initial morning exchange, three more Grad rockets that were set to be fired were discovered and dismantled by Lebanese troops, Lebanese security officials said... A similar incident occurred on Thursday, when at least two Katyusha rockets fired from south Lebanon exploded in northern Israel. Two people were lightly wounded in the attack, and a number of others suffered from shock.

... but that's just a formality:

The firing of Katyusha rockets from Lebanon into northern Israel on Wednesday, for the second time in one week, is the result of Hezbollah's desire to alter the balance of power that has existed between the militant organization and Israel since the Second Lebanon War. Hezbollah seeks to lay the foundation for a situation in the future in which the group can freely fire Katyushas at Israel, or use proxies to do so, without this constituting an all-out declaration of war, as occurred in the summer of 2006. No group has yet taken responsibility for last Thursday's rocket fire and, in the meantime, no one has claimed Wednesday's attack, but it is clear that little happens in southern Lebanon without being coordinated in advance with Hezbollah... Lebanese commentators assert that the scenario in which a Palestinian group, probably Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, does the dirty work for Hezbollah, is the one that we are seeing now.

This is the same trick Hamas used during the ostensible ceasefire: barrage Israeli civilians with rockets and - should Israel respond - watch as the world screeches about the IDF's "disproportionate response" to "harmless rockets." Except in this case you'll also have international sophisticates unblinkingly parroting Hezbollah's line about how they don't have anything to do with the rockets, and throwing in some hyper-specific but totally irrelevant Lebanese namechecks for good measure). The Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis's hope is that Israel - knowing in advance that this will be the global reaction - will be dissuaded from retaliating even while their civilians are increasingly terrorized.

But hey - at least UNIFIL and the Lebanese army are increasing their patrols in response to the barrage. Which is what they did after the first rocket attack. Which didn't work. Shockingly.

References:
* 3 rockets fired from Lebanon hit north Israel; IDF returns fire [Ha'aretz]
* ANALYSIS / Hezbollah seeking to change the rules of the game [Ha'aretz]
* Lebanon: Hizbullah denies connection to rocket fire on northern Israel [YNet]
* Report: Lebanese army boosts troops along Israel border [YNet]

Previously:
* Friends Of Likud Conference Call - Gen. Moshe Ya'alon On Whether Hezbollah Will Open Up A Second Front
* Several Good Reasons Why Hezbollah Either Will Or Won't Attack
* America's Voices Conference Call - Operation Cast Lead