Hamas Taking Limited Losses, Waiting For Obama Inauguration To Negotiate Ceasefire Terms

Hamas has definitely taken some losses: they're not burying their dead for fear of disclosing their losses (which is a change: usually they're not burying their dead so anti-Israel photojournalists can get good shots) and they're showing "some urgency" about securing a ceasefire:

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said Monday that Egyptian negotiators have indicated Hamas is showing some urgency in its desire for a cease-fire deal to end the fighting in Gaza. "There is a measure of urgency. Hamas were in Egypt yesterday. But there are some fundamental issues to overcome," Miliband said. Those issues, he said, include the smuggling of arms and other goods across the Egyptian border and wider disputes over access to and control of border crossings, including the Rafah crossing with Egypt. Miliband called on both Israel and Hamas to commit to an immediate cease-fire.

Some urgency - but not too much:

In Jerusalem there is a growing concern that Hamas may be playing for time - six days prior to the swearing in of a new U.S. president, the group may prefer to wait for the Obama Administration in the hope that the environment may be more conducive to its aims. The rumors that Hamas is close to throwing in the towel, which began to circulate following the speech by Ismail Haniyeh Monday, proved to be premature. In the field, Israel continues to apply military pressure - both in practice, by targetting Hamas and tightening the noose on Gaza City, but also by suggesting that the worst has yet to come.

There's supposedly also heavy pressure from the Israeli Defense establishment to end the operation, with Barak and Olmert at each other's throats. Given their manifest diplomatic incompetence it's certainly credible that Israel's top politicians would descend into public spats during a war, though it's also possible that this is another Barak headfake. In any case a ceasefire now would allow Hamas to claim victory by having survived:

The Shin Bet security service said yesterday that Palestinians fired 530 rockets at Israel in the first 16 days of fighting in Gaza, and another 40 in the last two days - an average of 30 rockets a day, though the peak figure was 74 on the third day of the war. Most of the rockets are home-grown Qassams with a range of 7 kilometers. About 60 of the rockets that have been fired, or 12 percent, are Katyushas (Grads), most of which have been smuggled in through underground tunnels. Those are the rockets that are hitting Ashkelon, Ashdod, Be'er Sheva and Gedera. Over the past nine days, Hamas has continued firing rockets, an average of about 20 a day. This shows the Hamas military wing is functioning, giving orders to its fighters and maintaining its rocket capability. Although the Shin Bet did not provide its own assessment, reports from several sources indicate that Hamas has smuggled a total of 150 Katyushas, leaving it with about 100, though possibly more - enough to last for two weeks of rocket fire. The ground incursion has not significantly changed the face of the war, certainly as long as the IDF is not ordered to recapture Gaza, which does not look likely.

Provoke a war, melt back into the civilian population, wait a month - then declare victory. A genuinely glorious resistance movement, the Palestinians have created.

References:
* A couple of tips from Israeli intelligence [Israel Matzav]
* UK says Hamas showing some urgency on cease-fire [YNet]
* ANALYSIS / Israel thinks Hamas waiting on Obama for Gaza truce [Ha'aretz]
* PM, Barak at odds over ending op [JPost]
* One Jerusalem Conference Call - Effie Eitam On Ceasefire Rumors (Plus: Israeli Officials Intentionally Playing The Media?) [MR]
* Rice: Hope Olmert's criticism was 'taken out of context' [YNet]
* ANALYSIS / Hamas fighting power still exists in Gaza [Ha'aretz]