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Ceasefire Would Allow Iran To Rearm Hamas Within Weeks

Armed

A cause for concern for anyone who doesn't buy NPR's "balanced" musings about how Iran doesn't give Hamas weapons. Which is to say, a cause for concern for anyone who's not a blistering idiot:

If the gap in southern Gaza is not blocked, Iran will be able to, indirectly, threaten central Israel in months, if not weeks. Only at this stage is the sophistication and extent of the smuggling mechanism in place being understood in Israel, and the role played in that smuggling by officers in Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Since the success of the naval commandos in intercepting the Karin A, a ship carrying weapons to the Palestinians in January 2002, the Iranians have changed their methods. Instead of smuggling large quantities, the arms are brought in small amounts through an intricate network of mediators. But these small shipments included Katyusha rockets, and there is a possibility that Fajr missiles will follow - reaching targets 70 kilometers from Gaza.

Last week Iran sent another high-level delegation to Damascus for talks with Hamas. Given how the IDF is dealing with their promises to turn Gaza into an Israeli graveyard - no downed jets, no destroyed tanks, etc - the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis would deeply appreciate the opportunity to launch rockets into Israel two weeks after a ceasefire. What's Israel going to do? Invade all over again? Not a chance.

Please consider this post your acknowledgment of that poorly sourced Newsmax article about how Israel is about toattack Iran. It kind of sort of makes sense in a Machiavellian way: dismantle Iran's Gaza proxy, mobilize the Israeli homefront for Iran's inevitable retaliation under the cover of Cast Lead, then launch the attack. Coupled with that NYT report about how the US won't let Israel attack it even fits nicely with MR's official "all information about Iran is disinformation" policy. But it seems about five steps too clever for anything comingn from this guy.

References:
* Iranian Mullahs Wringing Their Hands As IDF Dismantles Hamas's Army (Plus: NPR Wonders About "Real Connection" Between Iran And Hamas) [MR]
* ANALYSIS / Israel believes Hamas is waiting on Obama for Gaza truce [Ha'aretz]
* Iran's Larijani meets Hamas in Damascus [YNet]
* The Time Clock Has Run Out: Israel Ready to Strike Iran [Newsmax]
* Helpful Reminder - We Don't Know Anything About US And/Or Israel Plans To Hit Iran [MR]
* U.S. Rejected Aid for Israeli Raid on Iranian Nuclear Site [NYT]
* U.S.: Olmert never asked us to abstain from UN vote on Gaza truce [Ha'aretz]

Previously:
* Confirmed: Hamas Wants To Use WMDs Against Israel, Trigger Full-Blown Regional War
* Bad News: 70,000 Iranian Suicide Bombers Ready To Blow Themselves Up In Israel
* Several Good Reasons Why Hezbollah Either Will Or Won't Attack

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  • Omri Ceren is a PhD candidate studying Rhetoric at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication. He lives in downtown Los Angeles.

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