The IDF is looking at a Hezbollah-style force of about 15,000 heavily-disciplined Hamas soldiers who have been armed via the "most intensive military buildup - for a terrorist group - in modern history." They've been smuggling advanced weapons into Gaza since the moment the ceasefire began and have already launched highly advanced missiles into some of Israel's largest cities. Now Israeli intel is now talking hundreds of rockets per day throughout the Gaza operation and beyond. Everything points to Hamas having made a strategic decision to go to war:

Above all, the decision to renew the firing stems from an arrogant perception - which can also be observed from time to time on the Israeli side of the border - that the other side understands force better than anything else. Hamas seems to believe that "the Jews understand only force." If violence at a low intensity fails to persuade Israel to let goods into the Strip, then, according to Hamas' approach, another escalation in violence could help Israel make the right decision. The organization's leadership expects an Israeli retaliation, but they assume it will be limited in scope. They deduce this from what they view as an Israeli reluctance to launch a massive land invasion.

They may have gambled right: the Israeli public seems somewhat against an extended ground invasion and the IDF has ramped up only for a limited operation. On the other hand the operation involves ground and air operations and Livni is breathing fire diplomatically. Even Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and Israeli President Shimon Peres seems distinctly unhappy about the rockets raining down on Israeli civilians. At least this makes it easy on journalists. Hamas fires rockets at Israeli civilians, Israel responds by targeting Hamas infrastructure: it's a cycle of violence!

Just for the record: no it's not:

Exactly the same people - who last week presented convincing reasons to justify continuing the policy of restraint in the Gaza Strip... have now changed their tune completely... There are several factors behind the change in policy. The central one, simply put, is the situation on the ground: Close to 200 Katyushas, Qassam rockets and mortar shells have been fired at the Negev since Hamas said it would not renew the tahadiyeh (lull) that had expired on December 19. The response on the part of the Israel Defense Forces, at least until yesterday around noon, was the epitome of restraint.

Even as the IDF was suiting up, Olmert went on TV to appeal to Hamas to stop firing rockets and missiles. He had just freed a bunch of Palestinian prisoners. But no such luck: confidence in divine victory has put Hamas leaders beyond the reach of even appeasement.

References and previously after the jump...