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Smug Liberal Sophistication Undisturbed By Decades Of Disastrously Wrong Domestic And International Predictions

To(ols)

They just say stuff. Just unblinkingly say stuff. They're ostensible experts but they spout the most absurd things in the most obnoxious ways. And then when they turn out to be disastrously wrong - because that's what happens when you base policy on wrongheaded assumptions and tangled logic - they just move on. It's mind boggling.

Iraq - Fred Kaplan, Slate, Apr. 22, 2008:

Iran is outsmarting us in Iraq: One thing is for sure: It is time to start talking with the Iranians. First, they control too many of the pieces for us not to engage them diplomatically. Second, it turns out that we do have some common interests (for instance, crushing Sadr in Basra). Might it be possible to leverage those interests to induce cooperation, or extract concessions, in other realms where we have differences? Third, Maliki clearly has no qualms about talking with the Iranians when it suits his purposes.

Actually the proper course was to wait for the surge - about which Kaplan was a self-described skeptic for dozens of very sophisticated reasons - to stabilize Iraq until local tribes felt safe gambling against sectarianism. Today Iran's influence in Iraq has been sharply reduced both politically and militarily. But why should that matter?

Nuclear proliferation - Joe Cirincione, Center for American Progress, Sept. 14, 2007:

This story is nonsense. The Washington Post story should have been headlined "White House Officials Try to Push North Korea-Syria Connection." This is a political story, not a threat story... it appears aimed at derailing the U.S.-North Korean agreement that administration hardliners think is appeasement. Some Israelis want to thwart any dialogue between the U.S. and Syria. Few reporters appear to have done even basic investigation of the miniscule Syrian nuclear program... It doesn't amount to much. Begun almost 40 years ago, the Syrian program is a rudimentary research program built around a tiny 30-kilowatt research reactor that produces isotopes and neutrons. It is nowhere near a program for nuclear weapons or nuclear fuel.

Sounds pretty straightforward! He's got some specific-sounding facts and dispenses them in a tone of haughty exasperation. You can see why Obama's relying heavily on Cirincione's home think-tank during the transition. In reality, of course, Syria was actually pretty near a program for nuclear fuel. So what?

Industrial regulation - Robert Kaus, 1983:

[R]igid work rules are not a mere by-product of unionism. They are central to the collective bargaining system and in fact have been praised by labor scholars as one of its great strengths. During the postwar era of prosperity, they were thought to dovetail nicely with the form of business organization that seemed destined to rule the world, the large corporate bureaucracy.... The fertile marriage of business bureaucracy and collective bargaining soon produced a large family of rules whose complexity was the subject of rapturous admiration.

As Mickey Kaus points out, those rigid work rules - praised in rapturous admiration by labor scholars - have bankrupted the US auto industry. Which didn't stop Democrats and unions from protecting them last week during negotiations. Because why should it?

Political Islam - Juan Cole, Sept. 24, 2008:

Sen. Barack Obama responded with outrage to the remarks made Tuesday by... Ahmadinejad... Obama's denunciation was mild compared with that of Gov. Sarah Palin... contrast, "Larry King Live" carried an hourlong interview with Ahmadinejad in which the Iranian was allowed to speak for himself and repeatedly denied any violent intentions. King thus reinforced the trend whereby entertainment television, whether Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show" or King's own dog-and-pony interview hour, conveys reality-based news while politicians continue to paint inaccurate and even fantastic scenarios.

Of course this is a fantasy, but just in case: Ahmadinejad said this week that Israel must be "razed to the ground." But maybe he meant it peacefully. Just like when the Iranian regime puts an atom symbol on banners that say "death to Israel." They mean a peaceful death. But Cole is still routinely cited as one of America's premier liberal Middle East experts. As for the smug claim that "entertainment television" is more "reality-based" than regular news: no of course it's not true. Don’t be stupid.

Financial markets - Ron Brownstein, LAT, May 31, 1999:

It’s one of the hidden success stories of the Clinton era. In the great housing boom of the 1990s, black and Latino homeownership has surged to the highest level ever recorded... Lenders also have opened the door wider to minorities because of new initiatives at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac–the giant federally chartered corporations that play critical, if obscure, roles in the home finance system. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy mortgages from lenders and bundle them into securities; that provides lenders the funds to lend more... maintaining the momentum of the 1990s will also require a continuing nudge from Washington. One key is to defend the Community Reinvestment Act.

Having been given thin argumentative pretexts and aggressive multiculturalist justifications, Democratic politicians went on to bully and race bait regulators. Money line: "I don’t see anything in this report that raises safety and soundness problems."

They just say stuff. It starts at the top with ostensible experts who are wrong for institutional or ideological reasons. They're never shy about dropping ethos-building albeit irrelevant specifics. Maybe a namecheck or two to sell "Iranian moderation" or very specific "leaked information" that Rove is about to be indicted. The result is the same: they get repeated by cocktail party tools and academic pedants who think that NPR's iTunes channel and a Salon subscription are a veritable Library of Alexandria.

These are the people who rolled their eyes at the Wright controversy because it was taken out of context by talk radio - until Obama threw Wright under the bus. They're the people who lapped up the Palin transcript hoax but insisted that Biden is a genius - which isn't really their fault since they seem to know less about history than he does. Propelled by self-righteousness, brimming with self-esteem, and with an unprecedented ability to locate ostensible expertise in service of their wishful thinking - they also just say stuff:

Peace In Our Time
Hitler To Host Olympics

One last example: Palestinian security assistance. In 2007 Gen. Dayton was in charge of strengthening Fatah in the Gaza Strip. Since - obviously - he was doing his job well, the Israelis were ipso facto overcautious. He imperiously told Israel to make security concessions to Fatah and blamed Israel for Palestinian rocket fire when the Israelis balked. He then told Congress - in pretty much these terms - that any idiot who can use a phone could tell that Fatah was in control of Gaza. Of course Hamas rolled over the Gaza Strip within the next few weeks. Result: Dayton got moved to the West Bank to do the whole thing over again. No worries. He's absolutely sure that - this time - he's doing a great job:

Keith Dayton, the US army general who is overseeing the training in Jordan of the Palestinian Authority's National Security Force for the West Bank, has praised the new recruits as "the most capable Palestinian security forces that have ever been fielded here," and firmly played down the notion that they might one day come to turn their weapons on Israel. In a rare interview, marking the third anniversary of his arrival here to head the United States Security Coordinator (USSC) hierarchy, Dayton told The Jerusalem Post that the trainees are taught over and again that "you are not here to learn how to fight against the Israeli occupation."

Yeah. That's why they're getting helicopter-busting APCs and why Abbas himself has suggested on multiple occasions that Fatah soldiers should - and I quote - "direct [their rifles] against the occupation." Here's the thing though: it's pretty likely that Dayton will turn out to be wrong and Israel will have to fight a Palestinian army controlled by Hamas but trained and armed by the US. When that happens it won't matter. There will be some hyper-specific but otherwise untenable reason why the problem lies neither in State's assumptions nor in their policies.

Well, it'll matter to the Israelis and to people who value the US-Israel alliance. But whatever.

References:
* Shot by Both Sides [Kaplan / Slate]
* Six Months That Could Change Iraq [Kaplan / Slate]
* Iran losing clout in Iraq? [FP Passport]
* US General says Iran Reduces Bomb Supply for Iraqi Insurgents [VOA]
* North Korea-Syria nuclear ties: deja vu all over again? [FP Passport]
* AP IMPACT: Donors, lobbyists help Obama get ready [AP]
* Watchdog says bombed Syria site resembled atom plant [Reuters]
* Where Do Detroit's Inefficient Work Rules Come From? [Kausfiles]
* Obama goes over the top in bashing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad [Cole / Salon]
* Iranian President supports to raze Israel to the ground [Trend.az]
* Fake News Shows Don't Teach Viewers Much About Political Issues, Study Finds [Science Daily]
* Minorities’ Home Ownership Booms Under Clinton but Still Lags Whites’ [Brownstein / LAT]
* Video: Democrats insist “nothing wrong” at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac in 2004 [Hot Air]
* Marty Peretz: Based On All Available Evidence I Disagree With Susan Rice, Who Is Nonetheless Awesome In Every Way (Plus: Misguided Victim-Complex Paranoia On The Pro-Israel Right) [MR]
* Juan Cole is Intellectually Dishonest, Part [Insert Big Number Here] [MR]
* Smug Liberal Sophistication Untroubled By Undeniable Evidence That Hardliners Are Winning In Iran [MR]
* Rove Informs White House He Will Be Indicted [TruthOut]
* The Wright Stuff: ABC provides the context [Hot Air]
* Obamasphere So Scary Smart It's Taken In By Another Moronic Hoax [Ace]
* New Coulter Column: "If Obama Wanted A Historically Delusional Vice President, Why Not Lyndon LaRouche?" [MR]
* Hamas Closer Than Ever To Political Takeover Of West Bank, Palestinian Authority [MR]
* The Oh-So-Moderate Abbas Urges Palestinians To Unite, Target Israelis [MR]
* Dayton: New PA forces are most capable ever [JPost]
* Palestinians To Get 25 Cutting Edge, Helicopter-Busting APCs [MR]
* State Department, UN Make Things Up To Coerce Israeli Concessions, Scapegoat Israel When Plans Fail (Plus: Hezbollah Now Openly Bragging About Using Civilian Human Shields) [MR]
* Memo To Foreign Policy Sophisticates - You'd Sound A Lot Less Stupid If You Stopped Mixing Your Condescension With Demonstrably False Fantasies Of Competence [MR]
* US Security Envoy Blames Israel For Palestinian Rocket Attack On Israel. Or Something. [Video] [MR]
* US To Bring Abject Failure Of Security Assistance To West Bank, Renew Pressure On Israel. What Could Go Wrong? [MR]

Previously:
* Turns Out, Foreign Policy Sophisticates A Little Over-Optimistic About Surging Russian Expansionism
* Carter: Gosh, That Guy That I Helped Put In Charge Of Zimbabwe Sure Is Screwing Things Up
* Obama: Since We All Know That Engagement With Iran Won't Work, How About A US Nuclear Umbrella For Israel?

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