Israel Gearing Up For Unilateral Strike On Iran?

A straightforward violation of MR's "no one knows anything about Israeli plans" policy. Except this time unsourced reports of an impending Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities might actually be true...
The IDF is drawing up options for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities that do not include coordination with the United States, The Jerusalem Post has learned. While its preference is to coordinate with the US, defense officials have said Israel is preparing a wide range of options for such an operation... a Defense News article on an early warning radar system the US recently sent to Israel quoted a US government source who said the X-band deployment and other bilateral alliance-bolstering activities send parallel message"
... for at least three reasons:
(1) Liberal US foreign policy experts - the ones who've gotten every major question wrong on Iran wrong for the last 20 years - are now about to add years to Iran's clock by insisting on negotiations:
Israeli officials expressed concern Wednesday about some of the recommendations in a report top American experts have prepared on Middle East policy for the Obama administration, including expanding engagement with Iran and possible responses should Teheran acquire nuclear capabilities. The report, drafted by the Council on Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution, will be a major focus of the latter's Saban Center for Middle East Policy forum this weekend for top US and Israeli officials, as Washington heavy hitters try to play a role in shaping the policies of the next administration.
During the Bush administration, pro-engagement sophisticates justified de facto appeasement by appealing to opaque divination about Iranian political divisions. Now that they've got a sympathetic President they're insisting that we should engage Iran for exactly the opposite reasons: Obama should ignore Iranian political divisions, launch negotiations before the June 2008 elections, and hand Ahmadinejad a win that he desperately needs in the face of political and economic unrest. Israelis look at a teetering Iranian economy that liberal US experts would save, see that these experts are throwing completely contradictory arguments against the wall to see what sticks, and conclude that one way or another Obama will find an excuse to do what he's always intended to do. That's certainly what his choice in advisers indicates. So Israel might conclude that their window is closing since it's better to knock the knees out of a President-elect's diplomatic platform than to take on a sitting President.
(2) Since it doesn't actually work - as such - the conventional wisdom about the US anti-missile system in Israel is that it's there to keep an eye on Israeli airspace. That's fair as far as it goes, although a de facto US base could also be spun as a symbolic show of US support and as a DMZ-style tripwire of US forces. But it's definitely a sign that either the US is trying to block an Israeli strike - which lends credibility to the idea that Israel is preparing to go it alone - or the US and Israel are coordinating an attack - which lends credibility to the idea that Israel is gearing up for an attack. In any case it gives credence to rumors of an Israeli strike.
(3) In recent weeks Iran has both kicked up their genocidal anti-Semitic rhetoric - blood-sucking is the vicious libel we're going with now - and taken concrete steps to destabilize the region specifically via nuclear technology. Their new plan is to give reactors to Arab countries and make it functionally impossible to stop Middle East nuclearization. This even goes beyond their usual calls for Sunnis and Shiites to cooperate in wiping out Israel. It's all that cooperation plus nuclear destabilization. Israel might conclude that taking away Iran's nuclear capabilities now is the only way to prevent all the Middle East's nuclear dominoes from falling.
References:
* Helpful Reminder - We Don't Know Anything About US And/Or Israel Plans To Hit Iran [MR]
* IDF preparing options for Iran strike [JPost]
* "Unprecedented" Power Grab By Iranian Ultra-Hardliners Casts Doubt On "Pragmatists Are Winning" Liberal Sophistication [MR]
* Obama's Top NSA And CIA Picks: Harsh On Israel, Sympathetic To Iran And Hezbollah [MR]
* Think-tank comments on Iran worry Israel [JPost]
* Diplomatic Sophistication Heartbreak: Tension Between Iranian Political Factions A Little Exaggerated [MR]
* Negotiating with Iran before its presidential election [Rosen]
* Grand Ayatollahs Warn Khamenei About Ahmadinejad [Gateway Pundit]
* Iranian parliament ousts Ahmadinejad ally over fake Oxford degree [JPost]
* Iran: "The Characteristics of Israel are Terrorism, Espionage and Blood-Sucking".... [Zippers]
* Iran proposes nuclear plants with Arab countries [JPost]
* Iran urges Lebanese to unite against Israel [Reuters]
Previously:
* Al Qaeda Misses Memo About How Sunnis And Shiites Don't Cooperate, Thanks Iran For Critical Financing And Infrastructure
* Obama Foreign Policy Team Pretty Much The Last People On Earth Who Think Engaging Iran Will Work [MR]
* Turns Out, Foreign Policy Sophisticates A Little Over-Optimistic About Surging Russian Expansionism








