Former Peace Process Diplomats To Obama: Renewed Peace Process Guaranteed To Fail
PLO leaders have declared Abbas "President of the Palestinian State." That's pretty sweet because (a) it means less competition in my ongoing bid to become King of The Magical Realm Of Not Making Shit Up and (b) the non-existence of a Palestinian state is only the second most obvious reason why this is a fantasy, as per lifelong peace process advocate and diplomat Aaron David Miller:
The dysfunction and confusion in Palestine make a conflict-ending agreement almost impossible. The divisions between Hamas (itself divided) and Fatah (even more divided) are now geographic, political and hard to bridge. Until the Palestinian national movement finds a way to impose a monopoly over the forces of violence in Palestinian society, it cannot move to statehood... What Palestinian leader can claim to speak for all Palestinians or negotiate an agreement against the backdrop of a separate entity which controls 1.3 million Palestinians, possesses a different view of governance and nation-building and often attacks its neighbor?... I would, however, respectfully suggest to President-elect Barck Obama, in my capacity as an American who doesn't want to see America fail again, that he recognize there's no deal in this negotiation now. Manage it as best you can... but don't think you can solve it; you can't.
Miller's solution is to restore US credibility by pushing Israel to give up the Golan in the context of a Syrian peace deal, thereby peeling Syria from Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. That won't work for a plethora of historical and ideological reasons. But even at "zero" it still stands a better chance than a deal with a guy who can't unite Palestinians on the basis of anything except "let's all kill Israelis" and who can't decide between boycotting peace talks and launching out and out war.
Then again Fatah has a holy crow on their side so maybe things are looking up. But since Hamas is so much stronger than Fatah, a strengthened Fatah would only deepen the Fatah-Hamas split that should already have convinced pro-Obama American Jewry that a peace deal is impossible:
President-elect Barack Obama's refrain of "change" has become a source of inspiration to many American Jews who wish to see Palestinian-Israeli peace talks assume greater importance... Dennis Ross, the former Clinton administration Middle East negotiator and now Obama adviser, recently launched a media offensive to lay the groundwork for regional diplomacy. While peace is in everyone's interest, American Jewry should be warned that it will be more difficult to achieve than ever. As if things weren't complicated enough, new challenges stem from the lack of a Palestinian interlocutor. Indeed, Hamas and Fatah - the two largest Palestinian factions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip - are now engaged in a bitter civil war. As long as Hamas and Fatah remain two non-governments ruling two non-states, Middle East diplomacy simply cannot succeed.
Fatah and Hamas supporters have been in open conflict since at least 1992. They'll obviously never have a prolonged civil war - if they had that kind of energy they'd have a state by now - but it's delusional to pretend that there's someone on the Palestinian side who can make a deal.
References:
* PLO leaders give Abbas the title 'President of Palestinian State' [JPost]
* An Israeli-Palestinian agreement: Forget about it [JPost]
* Just A Reminder: Sunnis And Shiites Historically United In Anti-Western Global Jihad (Plus: "History" Also A Pretty Good Answer To Obama's Engagement With Syria) [MR]
* The Oh-So-Moderate Abbas Urges Palestinians To Unite, Target Israelis [MR]
* Under Pressure, Abbas Says He’ll Talk Peace, but Actual Dialogue May Be Remote - New York Times [NYT]
* Moderate State Department Darling Abbas: We'll Declare War If Israel Doesn't Withdraw [MR]
* The holy crow of Fatah [Elder]
* Israeli Military Intel: Iran "Halfway" Toward Nuclear Weapon (Plus: Syria, Hezbollah, And Hamas All The Way Toward Every Other Kind Of Weapon) [MR]
* Palestinian Civil War Casts Shadow Over Peace Talks [Jonathan Schanzer / JTA]
* Breaking news from Gaza [Soccer Dad]
Previously:
* State Dept. More Enthusiastic Than Ever About Coercing Israeli Concessions, Arming Palestinian Soldiers (Plus: Editor-in-Chief Of Int'l Arabic Daily: Gaza Is Another Afghanistan)
* Bush: Actually, Not So Much With The Peace Process Thing This Year
* Moderate Western-Trained Palestinian PM: Not So Much With This Jews And Jerusalem Thing
