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Post-Election NIE Will Conclude That Iraq Still Faces Potential "Wave Of Violence"

Delicate

Because this is definitely the kind of thing you want to hold back from Americans who have to decide whether the guy who wants a precipitous withdrawal should be Commander in Chief:

A nearly completed high-level U.S. intelligence analysis warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year. U.S. officials familiar with the new National Intelligence Estimate said they were unsure when the top-secret report would be completed and whether it would be published before the Nov. 4 presidential election. The new NIE, which reflects the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, has significant implications for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, whose differences over the Iraq war are a major issue in the presidential campaign.

And now, some blisteringly stupid analysis:

The findings seem to cast doubts on McCain's frequent assertions that the United States is "on a path to victory" in Iraq by underscoring the deep uncertainties of the situation despite the 30,000-strong U.S. troop surge for which he was the leading congressional advocate. But McCain could also use the findings to try to strengthen his argument for keeping U.S. troops in Iraq until conditions stabilize.

"But McCain could also use the findings..." Oh you think so doctor? Of course that's what the report implies. What it doesn't imply, on the other hand, is that the US is losing the war or that we're not on a "path to victory." Which makes it almost dishonest for a well-respected media outlet to publish the assertion as straightforward fact. Nothing a little Democratic-style Iraq-related "stretching of facts" can't fix. But still - dishonest.

Not coincidentally, remember how very enthused the left was about the "consensus of 16 intelligence agencies" that concluded that Iran wasn't pursuing nukes? The bona fides of said NIE consensus - which stood contrary to what the rest of the world thinks and the bulk of logical reasoning implies - were held to be absolutely unimpeachable. Expect that sentiment to receive a healthy does of "neoconservative cabal" nuance when this report gets published.

References:
* Lingering tensions could reverse progress in Iraq, U.S. intelligence analysis finds [McClatchy]
* Congressman admits Democrats "stretched the facts," misled anti-war supporters about supposed plans for ending War [Jeff Emanuel]

Previously:
* Iraq Had WMDS
* Obama: We Need To Start Sucking Up To Iran Right Now So We Can Get Out Of Iraq (Plus: Liberal American Jews Torn Between Old Anti-Israel Democrat And New Anti-Israel Democrat)
* Top Obama Adviser Explains Iraq War: Turns Out, It's The Jews' Fault. Again. (Plus: Ha'aretz Political Correspondent’s Pro-Obama Apologism Getting Increasingly Desperate)

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  • Omri Ceren is a PhD candidate studying Rhetoric at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication. He lives in downtown Los Angeles.

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