It's been a quarter-century since these tools started a regional war during Yom Kippur. Old habits:

A few tents and trucks dotting a green hill across the river are about all that is visible of a Syrian troop deployment on Lebanon's northern border — a buildup that has raised concerns of a possible Syrian incursion. There was no sign Wednesday that the Syrian troops were preparing to cross the border. Syria says the deployment - first made public several weeks ago - is aimed at preventing smuggling from Lebanon... Syria's secular government has said the Damascus bombers were Islamic militants who entered from another country, though it did not specify which. Syrian President Bashar Assad had warned days earlier that militants were setting up base in northern Lebanon and that they could threaten Syrian security... Lebanese press reports have said up to 10,000 troops are involved in the deployment, something Lebanese military officials have described as exaggerated and inaccurate.

Assad shouldn't have any incentive to militarily occupy Lebanon given how Hezbollah already owns the country. Maybe he's concerned about Iranian influence over Hezbollah and wants to reassert Syrian dominance. But he'd have to take on Hezbollah's leadership to gain some sort of material control - and that's never going to happen. First, Syria wouldn't gain anything that they don't already have. Second, Hezbollah is still a significant ally. And third, they'd lose.

Paranoid thought: Syria masked their troop buildup in 1973 under a series of "routine" military exercises. Another ploy? I would think zero chance, except Assad is saying that his goal is to regain the Golan through peace. Since he's obviously lying - he'd much rather regain Syria's much-vaunted honor through the military victory that he's perenially preparing for - it's not beyond the realm of possibility that this buildup is somehow aimed at Israel. But even he's not dumb enough to start a hot war with an IDF that's straining at its leash. Plus paranoia, as a rule, is unhealthy.

So this is probably exactly what it looks like: Assad throwing a hissy because Lebanon can't control its border. Syria loves itself some border smuggling, but only when the ultimate purpose is to murder Israelis.

If he does attack, it's already more polite than the last Yom Kippur war Syria started: at least it's not during Ramadan. Which has always seemed a little odd to me, since I've been told that it's a time of peace. Not so peaceful that you can't be an Arab terrorist who crashes his car into 19 Israeli civilians. But at least so peaceful that you don't start genocidal wars. Apparently I was misled.

References:
* Syrian troops gather on Lebanese border [AP]
* Iran Takes Over Hezbollah After Hezbollah Takes Over Lebanon (Plus: State Department Naturally Urging Israel To Cede More Land... To Hezbollah) [MR]
* MI: Syria likely to respond to IAF strike using ally like Hezbollah [Ha'aretz]
* Report: Assad says Syria preparing for possible war with Israel [Ha'aretz]
* Arab world marks '73 War anniversary [JPost]
* UN: Lebanon-Syria border still wide open to smugglers [Ha'aretz]
* Breaking: Arab-Israeli Terrorist Injures 15 In J'lem, Anti-Israel Media Bias Watch Begins (UPDATE: 19 Injured, Terrorist Was Palestinian From J'lem) (UPDATE: Press Bias Exceeds Expectations) [MR]

Previously:
* Was Syria Actively Building - Or Storing - A Nuke In The Operation Orchard Facility?
* Syria Responds To US Peacemaking Team By Sentencing Political Dissident
* Syria's Been Building Their Nuclear Reactor Since 2003 And The State Department Still Tried To Stop Israel From Taking It Out (Plus: Awesome IDF Bombing Raid Just Got Filled With Even More Awesome)