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Bolton: Israel Will Attack Iran By January (Plus: New EU Sanctions Somewhat Underwhelming, Still Better Than What Obama Will Do)

Inevitable?

Large-scale IAF exercises - involving, among other things, more than 100 fighter jets. Meetings between Olmert and the architect of the Osirak attack - discussing, in all probability, a discussion on in-flight warplane refueling. Preparations for massive Iranian retaliation - against both Israeli and international targets. Very, very subtle:

Israel is likely to attack Iran in the time between the November presidential election in the US and the inauguration of the new president, former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton told the Daily Telegraph in an interview published Tuesday. But he said he did not believe the US would take part in such a strike. "It's clear that the administration has essentially given up that possibility," he said. "I don't think it's serious any more. If you had asked me a year ago I would have said I thought it was a real possibility. I just don't think it's in the cards." "The Israelis have one eye on the calendar because of the pace at which the Iranians are proceeding both to develop their nuclear weapons capability and to do things like increase their defenses," Bolton said.

Amazing that Israel has no faith in the EU's latest sanctions. It might have something to do with how Iran withdrew their assets before the freeze went into effect and that Obama's impending appeasement of Iran is even scaring the Europeans:

One might think that Europe would welcome Barack Obama with open arms, but according to Glenn Kessler at the Washington Post, Obama has them worried. Key European allies fear a rupture between the US and the Continent if Obama attempts to waive the precondition of enrichment cessation in dealing with Iran. While they would like to see a heavier emphasis on team play rather than American hegemony, Obama’s insistence on cozying up to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is far out of step with the rest of the West... Europe likes to remind people that the preconditions of cessation are European demands, not American, although the US has supported it wholeheartedly. Obama’s insistence on dropping this precondition in order to score PR points with MoveOn and Ahmadinejad looks a lot less like multilateralism and much more like cowboy diplomacy than anything Bush has done on Iran thus far. If Obama is to Europe’s left on Iran, what does that say about his foreign policy?

Or it could be that the Israelis are warmongers. Who can tell?

Israeli leaders are quite aware that the cost of attacking Iran - in human lives, economic infrastructure, and global reputation - will be all but existential. That's also, unfortunately, all they've got left to count on.

References:
* U.S. Says Israeli Exercise Seemed Directed at Iran [NYT]
* Report: Olmert met with Osirak attack planner [JPost]
* Iran's 'Nightmare Scenarios' Mulled [NY Sun]
* 'Israel to strike Iran after elections' [JPost]
* EU approves sanctions against Iran's biggest bank [AP]
* Iran Withdraws Money From European Banks [The Trumpet]
* Europe fears Obama on Iran [Hot Air]

Previously:
* IAEA: Maybe Iran Is Developing Nukes and Maybe They're Not
* Russia Gives Iran Cutting-Edge Anti-Ship Missiles To Give To Hezbollah
* Iran: Israeli Self-Defense is a Cause for War

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  • Omri Ceren is a PhD candidate studying Rhetoric at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication. He lives in downtown Los Angeles.

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