Heh:

Paraphrasing a reader's suggestion, foreseeing an Oval Office address near the end of Obama's first term: "The Prime Minister Ahmadinejad who ordered the nuclear strike on Tel Aviv yesterday... is not the same man I met in Tehran at our summit back in 2009."

The problem being, of course, that this isn't really a joke. The left's emphasis on self-styled sophistication - their "only we're smart enough to understand what Arab leaders really mean when they say they want to wipe out Israel" conceit - has caused them to get the Middle East wrong again and again. Despite Iran's obvious and increasing intransigence during the 1990s, foreign policy experts were sure that reformists were just about to sweep to victory. And then when that didn't happen they insisted that newly categorized "conservative pragmatists" were going to take the day. Wrong and wrong. Despite Iran's obvious role in linking Hezbollah and Mugniyah, these same experts insisted for decades that Mugniyah was anything but a Hezbollah operative. Laughingly wrong. Despite a broad consensus across the Iranian regime that the Islamic Republic should nuclearize, the foreign policy left focuses on subtle intrigues that may or may not exist. Not really important. Despite Iran's obvious progress toward the bomb, they came up with the suggestion that we didn't have to worry because Iran could never get enough of their Pakistani-bought centrifuges to work. Problem solved. And then of course there's the whole "Sunnis and Shiites don't work together" smugness with which the left greets any suggestion that Iran is backing terrorism against Israel. Right.

Obama's foreign policy advisers are part of a community - and they embody a certain way of thinking - that has gotten every major question about Iran wrong. They have consistently given the Islamic Republic the benefit of the doubt based on counterintuitive hunches grounded in inscrutable assumptions. And they'll do it right up until Iran successfully tests a nuclear weapon. And then - after having spent a decade preventing the US from addressing Iranian proliferation - they'll complain that none of this would have ever happened if only they had been in charge.

References:
* It Turns Out the Critics Knew Wright Better Than Obama Did [Campaign Spot]
* Smug Liberal Sophistication Untroubled By Undeniable Evidence That Hardliners Are Winning In Iran [MR]
* Obligatory Post About Iran's "Hezbollah Radiation Will Destroy Israel" Threat (Plus: Mugniyah Assassination Dramatically Demonstrates Absurdity Of Liberal Foreign Policy Sophistication) [MR]
* Mathematical Proof That Negotiating With Iran Is Stupid. Not Wrong. Stupid. [MR]
Iran Misses Memo About How Sunnis And Shiites Don't Cooperate, Gives Syria Cutting Edge Offensive Missiles (Plus: Expert Sophistication Wrong On Iranian Nuclearization. Again) [MR]
* Hezbollah Outreach To "Sunnis Who Are Loyal To Hezbollah" Not So Kind To Expert Expertise Of Foreign Policy Experts Who Deny Sunni-Shiite Cooperation [MR]
* State Department And Pentagon Plotting Insubordination, Pretty Much Lying To Prevent Action Against Iran [MR]

Previously:
* Obama's Sophistication Is Actually Kind Of Unsophisticated, Incoherent
* New Poll Shows Peace-Loving Palestinians Somewhat Less Than Peaceful
* State Dept: That Syrian Nuclear Reactor We Tried To Protect Was No Big Deal Anyway