Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-11-28 - Annapolis Edition (Plus: The Most Under-Appreciated Poll Of The Month)
We haven't done one of these since the Likud primaries predictably went to Bibi, but there's going to be an election soon so we might as well start easing our way back in. The exact shape of the post-Annapolis landscape is just about impossible to predict. It depends not just on the summit itself - whether Olmert seems like he's protected Israel, whether Lieberman thinks the concessions are too far-reaching, whether Jerusalem becomes an issue, etc. That's just the Kadima side of things. Barak's popularity relies on a host of other factors - whether Hamas, Hezbollah, and Fatah "offshoots" stay quiet, whether he has the ability to respond to any provocations, whether he gets the credit or blame for responding or not responding, etc.
Not that the uncertainty should stop anyone from irresponsibly speculating about what might happen. Analysis on each of the big three parties after the jump, including the most under-appreciated poll of the month.
Kadima
If Annapolis fails, then Israel will move to new elections because no one wants Olmert running anything while the country is transitioning to a war-time footing.
If the conference succeeds and moves into final status negotiations, then Israel will probably move to new elections anyway Olmert will lose his coalition. Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas will almost certainly bolt. We have no idea how they've stayed this long in the first place (again: if Lieberman and Yishai aren't on Arieh Eldad payroll then someone's getting ripped off). If Israel Beiteinu bolts and Olmert somehow holds on to Shas (really?) then he'll be looking to Meretz for a diplomatic safety net in the Knesset. Not impossible - his Coalition is huge - but not the best position for him to be in. There's also the possibility that someone will bring a no confidence motion to the floor based on social issues, in which case Meretz may have trouble supporting the government.
Likud
And all of that assumes that Kadima will even stay intact. Mofaz and the four or five Kadima MKs to his right might well take the opportunity to go back to the Likud, where they would be welcomed with open arms as part of Netanyahu's campaign to "reunite Israel in the aftermath of Olmert's failed peace ventures" (nb. not a real quote - yet).
Netanyahu is the obvious winner if Annapolis fails - or if it succeeds "too much" in the way of burying Israel under promises and concessions that will be exploited by terrorists within weeks. He's been a major figure in the rallies to save Jerusalem. Lieberman has been by his side for a lot of that, with the difference being that Netanyahu is trying to bring down the government and Lieberman is, well, not. But we're still pretty astounded by how badly Netanyahu misplayed the post-Lebanon II political situation. He won't be dumb enough not to take back rightist Kadima MKs who abandon Olmert. But he might give Barak enough time to rebuild his reputation and mount a credible challenge.
Labor
Although it's totally unrelated to anything political, this may be the single most significant poll we've seen on how a near-term election will break down. Netanyahu may have dodged a bullet. Barak's popularity has been on the upswing since Operation Orchard. The bargain that he made with Olmert was that Barak would get to be Defense Minister and reap the political dividends of restoring the post-Lebanon II IDF. It looks like his efforts have fallen somewhat short of inspiring public confidence.
References:
* Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-08-14 - Likud Primary Voters Set Out To Prove Themselves Slightly Less Stupid Than Labor Primary Voters [MR]
* Olmert fears Lieberman, Shas will bolt coalition soon after summit [Ha'aretz]
* Tuesday Headline Link Dump - Palestinians Set Peace Process Conditions And The Israeli Right Implodes (Plus: There May Be No One We Do Not Hate) [MR]
* Palestinians To Get 25 Cutting Edge, Helicopter-Busting APCs [MR]
* Netanyahu Launches Campaign to Oust Olmert. He'd Better Act Fast. [MR]
* Study: Israelis' confidence in IDF, security services at 7-year low [Ha'aretz]
Previously:
* Funny Anti-Olmert Commercial From Israel [Subtitled Video]
* Israeli-Arab Fifth Column Watch: MKs Demand Israel Be Dismantled (So Much For "Final Status" Talks)
* Olmert Releasing 2000 Prisoners To Placate Crybaby Palestinian Thugs
