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STRATFOR: Syria Massing Troops On The Golan, Israeli Skittishness May Mean War (Plus: Iran's "Final Response" To Israel On October 12)

The article is behind a subscription wall, but if you search for it through Google News you'll be able to read the whole thing. The whole very, very worrying thing:

Unusual activity has been reported on the Syrian side of Israel's northern frontier along the Golan Heights, including helicopter activity and the movement of tanks and troops. Syria massing troops along its southern border is nothing out of the ordinary, particularly since Israel launched a major airstrike on its territory Sept. 6. But the Israelis appear to be a lot more concerned than usual about Syrian intentions as of late. When Israel scrambled its warplanes Sept. 27 for the third time in the past two weeks, Stratfor saw a pressing need to investigate why the Israelis are so spooked about a Syrian reprisal for the Sept. 6 Israeli airstrike, and why Israel has gone out of its way to reassure the Syrians that it is not looking for a fight. Israel's apparent skittishness could be caused by concerns circulating in the region that Syria might launch a surprise offensive to recapture the Golan Heights. A split has surfaced within the Syrian regime, where some are arguing that an offensive in the Golan Heights would be in Damascus' best interest and would galvanize Arab support and bring Syria out of regional isolation... the Israelis are giving every indication that they are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

Here's the problem: Syria knows that it would get brutally dismantled in a conventional war against the IDF. Their plan during the summer hinged on two things: (1) the ability to defend their airspace against IDF incursions and (2) the ability to to take a tiny bit of the Golan and hold on till global anti-Israel diplomacy was brought to against the Jewish State. But the lack of Arab support after Israel's air raid showed Syria that it can't count on diplomatic support, just as the air raid itself showed them that they had seriously underestimated the IAF's superiority. Syria has to know that. Israel knows that Syria has to know that. Syria knows that Israel knows... and so on.

So what could Syria possibly be thinking, and why is Israel so nervous? STRATFOR suggests that some of Syria's non-conventional arsenal is still intact (of course it is), and that Israel fears that Assad is going to use it against Israeli civilians. But even STRATFOR admits that this would mean the physical end of Assad and his regime - and they might have added that while Assad is a thug, he's not a suicidal theocrat. He doesn't go to war unless he thinks he can win.

Why Assad might think he can win - and why it amounts to an existential threat to the Jewish State - after the jump.

Undoubtedly he's counting in part on Hezbollah. Thanks to the de facto collaboration of UNIFIL, Nasrallah has restocked his arsenal with deadlier and more sophisticated weapons - and he's planted them in the middle of densely-packed Palestinian refugee camps. He can commit war crimes again Israeli civials with relative impunity, since the IAF's options for even defensive action would be severely limited. But Assad can't really think that Hezbollah represents a strategic threat to the IDF, especially during wartime mobilization. Even he's not that stupid.

So that means: if Assad is going to war, he's counting on Iran's help. But Iran knows that any conventional attack on Israel - any military intervention at all, in fact - will provide Israel with exactly the pretext that it needs to wipe out Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran gets to hit Israel exactly once. Which makes this dangerous and insane raving sound particularly ominous:

ran has promised a devastating “final response” to supporters of the Jewish State on October 12, the Islamic Republic’s Quds (Jerusalem) Day. “Supporters of the Zionist regime will receive their response during the world Quds Day's rallies,” Iranian government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham said at a weekly press conference Wednesday. According to the state-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Elham was describing Iran's planned response for US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit “to the occupied Palestine [sic].” "The US loses all opportunities to cooperate with regional and other world states by trying to support a regime (the Zionist regime) which is now at its weakest political and social position," Elham said. "Supporters of the Zionist regime will definitely receive the final response for their support on Quds day."

No worries though - the US and its allies have decided to wait until at least November before even considering more sanctions against the genocidal mullahs.

References:
* Israel: Anticipating a Syrian Offensive? [STRATFOR]
* This Summer's War With Syria - Syria Aims Chemical And Biological Weapons At Israeli Cities, Complains That Israel Might Attack It To Prevent It From Launching Chemical And Biological Weapons [MR]
* Syrian-Based Palestinian Terrorist: Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, And Palestinians Prepared To Attack Israel [MR]
* Take Away Hezbollah's Collaborators, Human Shields, And Useful Idiots. Disband UNIFIL Now. [MR]
* Iran Promises "Final Response" to US and Israel on October 12 [INN]
* No New Sanctions On Iran. Sophistication On Display. [MR]

Previously:
* This Summer's War With Syria - Peace Deal Rumors Are Suspiciously Incoherent
* Hezbollah Getting Ready To Start Another War
* This Summer's War With Syria - Sucking Up To Dictators Doesn't Work Edition

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