Spectacular IDF Actions Aimed At Restoring Israel's Deterrent

Under the delusion of international assurances and Oslo headiness, Israelis had decided that the era of big wars was over and that the future of Israeli security lay with the IAF. Call it the Don Rumsfeld approach to Middle East security - light, swift units designed to fight in close urban areas. The problem is that - as it turns out - armies still need to use tanks and soldiers to defeat large numbers of enemy tanks and soldiers trying to kill them or invade their territory. And Israel specifically still needs to be able to convince its enemies that not only can it use its tanks and soldiers, but that it's willing to do so. Since Halutz resigned and Ashkenazi took over, the IDF has moved away from the over-reliance on the IAF that had marked Halutz's disastrous tenure.

The Defense Ministry under Barak is trying to take care of the second part, which involves restoring Israel's deterrent. Barak has ordered the IDF to undertake riskier missions, from dropping troops a mile inside Gaza for Hollywood style special forces operations to ordering the IAF to conduct airstrikes in Syria that are nothing short of humiliating (article is subscription-only, but if you search for it on Google News you can get the full article behind the Google-subscription link):

Two salient points have emerged. First, as was clear Sept. 6, the IAF appears to retain the ability to violate Syrian airspace with impunity. The Syrian air defense network remains aged and worn, and without a systemic upgrade, it will remain unable to defend against Israeli incursions (an impression Damascus would certainly like to change, but one it patently failed to, in this case). Second, and perhaps ultimately more important, the incident also is very revealing of Syria's current diplomatic posture and the price it has paid by aligning itself closely with Iran. A typical Syrian response to a serious IAF airspace violation would involve eliciting condemnations from the U.N. Security Council, the European Union and Arab League members against Israel; demanding answers from the United States; and mobilizing forces in the Golan Heights along its border with Israel...

Likely spooked by the IAF's intentions behind the overflight and with only a feeble diplomatic defense against Israel, the Syrians are being extremely cautious not to provoke a military confrontation with the Jewish state. Syria has even refrained thus far from massing troops along the border in response to Israel's military buildup in the Golan Heights, revealing that Damascus lacks the confidence and capability to risk a fight at this stage.

Across The Bay does its best - with less than complete success - not to revel in Assad's difficult position. The risk now is that Assad will be forced into a war in order to try to save face and political power. Seething and resentful weaklings are most dangerous and hysterical when confronted with their own impotence. Assad would activate Hezbollah in any Israeli-Syrian war, and that in turn risks drawing in Hezbollah's masters in Tehran. Israel may take the opportunity presented by Iranian involvement - and the IAF's potential war-time dominance of Syrian skies - to finally settle accounts with Iran's nuclear program. And from there it's a very, very short step to massive Iranian retaliation against Israeli civilian centers, and mind-numbing tragedy.

References:
* Capture Of Shalit Kidnapper "Like A Scene Out Of A Hollywood Action Movie" [MR]
* Israel, Syria: A Few Clues, But More Questions [STRATFOR]
* The Dictator has no Clothes [Across the Bay]

Previously:
* Mere Rhetoric: IDF To Palestinians: "Please Don't Let Your Kids ...
* Mere Rhetoric: IDF Is Confused About Whether They're Allowed To ...
* Mere Rhetoric: Barak: Either The Palestinians Or The IDF Will Stop ...

Cross-posted to:
* Israpundit