MR Takes A Swing At The "What The Hell Happened Over Syria" Pitch - Supersonic Missles Or Electronic Jamming Of Russia's "Unjammable" Anti-Aircraft SAMs
We originally thought it was a whole lot of nothing. Then we were kind of persuaded by the theory that Barak is in the process of reminding Israel's enemies that the IDF can drop troops - or bombs - wherever it wants. Then US officials confirmed that an airstrike. Theories about what was hit range from the conventional wisdom about Iranian missiles on their way to Hezbollah to the disturbing possibility of a Syrian nuclear program.
But Allahpundit is almost certainly right to point out that if recent reports about Turkish cooperation are true then the target had to be more important than missiles. Unless it was a cache of these missiles:
And then, of course, there's the original possibility that the actual target of the air strike was mostly irrelevant. STRATFOR's been arguing that that "many of the early details that suggested a reconnaissance flight... still hold true." After the jump, three reasons why the air strike could have been a mere distraction for a flyover aimed at accomplishing something totally different.
First, the Turkish military may have let the IAF through Turkish airspace purely to convey to Erdogan that they're not so much with his efforts to drive a wedge between the two militaries. That would be so totally not surprising that we were actually playing around with the idea of a coming pushback by the military before the news broke about their involvement in the Syria flyover. In other words, if it happened that way, the Turkish military didn't need to approve of the IAF's goals - they may have had their own separate but compatible domestic reasons for wanting Erdogan to find out that they had let the IAF in without his permission.
But even then, Israel would still need a reason to do the mission. That reason could have been as straight-forward as the original suspicion that Barak was trying to reestablish the IDF's deterrent. The goal isn't necessarly to stop a war. A war will inevitably start when Iran needs a distraction or when Syrian domestic politics require a scapegoat or when some Hezbollah field commander takes actions that force Nasrallah to overplay his hand. But it would be nice if, in the meantime, the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis had to at least pretend to hide their arms smuggling.
But there's still one more theory that emerged very early about the possible goal of a reconnaissance mission:
The report is obviously right about how Syrian air defenses collapsed again. We wrote it off at the time because it seemed a little too pat. But peep these recent reports coming out of Syria:
Interesting.
Hitting missiles destined for Hezbollah, especially in the context of Syria's saber-rattling about retaking the Golan by force, is certainly a legitimate military operation. But we wouldn't be surprised to learn, years from now, that it was just legitimate enough to distract from the real purpose of the flyover - testing Syrian, and by extension Iranian, air defenses. So either the target was a legitimate military installation, which could have anything from a lot of missiles to a few really powerful missiles to a nuclear installation. Or the target was a plausible pretext meant to distract from the flyover's real upshots, which may have involved anything from pinging Syrian air defenses to reestablishing Israeli deterrence to cementing geopolitical alliances. Lots of clarity here.
References:
* Capture Of Shalit Kidnapper "Like A Scene Out Of A Hollywood Action Movie" [MR]
* U.S. officials confirm IAF carried out strike in Syria [Ha'aretz]
* N. Korea, Syria May Be at Work on Nuclear Facility [WaPo]
* Report: Turkish military assisted Israel in secret raid on Syria [HA]
* Russia Gives Iran Cutting-Edge Anti-Ship Missiles To Give To Hezbollah [MR]
* Israel, Syria: A Few Clues, But More Questions [STRATFOR]
* Awww... Turkey's So Pissed Off At Israel That They Might Not Help Israel Give Syria Back The Golan [MR]
* Advanced Russian Air Defense Missile Cannot Protect Syrian and Iranian Skies [DEBKAFile]
* Communications Jamming Across Lebanon Likely Caused by Israel's Air Strikes on Syria [Naharnet]
Previously:
* This Summer's War With Syria, Iranian Coordination Edition
* This Summer's War With Syria - Peace Deal Rumors Are Suspiciously Incoherent
* Syria Modernizing Its Airforce With Russian Help - War With Israel On The Horizon
