Doing Nothing Is An Option - Weak Syrian Economy Edition
We're shamelessly stealing that line from Mickey Kaus, who's been using it as a mallet to beat comprehensive immigration proponents. There is simply no reason to pursue a peace deal with Syria - they demand a total return of annexed Israeli land, and they have virtually nothing to offer in return except some hollow promises about trying to reign in Hezbollah.
And those would last exactly as long as Assad lasted. Which wouldn't be all that long ,since he and his regime are perpetually in crises. He needs Israel to bail him out. This month's Middle East Review of International Affairs, published IDC GLORIA Center's, has an article Nimrod Raphaeli on one of these dimensions. Raphaeli, a former World Bank official, argues that Syria's economy is not so much with the being healthy:
The regime's preoccupation with the consequences of the assassination of al-Hariri will continue to divert attention from the country's serious problems of growth and unemployment. The threat of sanctions on Syria and the absence of a transparent legal system will discourage foreign direct investments. Despite much bravura about Syria's ability to withstand the effects of sanctions, the Syrian economy could be heavily impacted under such sanctions. All of these factors render the pace and sustainability of the reforms somewhat in doubt.
There are a host of other ways that Assad needs Israel - diplomatically to lift the pressure off of him, domestically so he can show he recovered the Golan, etc. He also desperately needs the US cash that a peace deal would provide. We'd really like to hear a good reason for Israel to bail him out, other than "so he doesn't start a war... that he'd lose... soon".
References:
* SYRIA'S FRAGILE ECONOMY [MERIA]
* GLORIA Center
Previously:
* Why, Exactly, Should Israel Give the Golan Back To Syria?
* Olmert Offers Golan To Assad In Exchange For Worthless Piece Of Paper. Whatever.
* Syria Petulantly Whines To UN About the Golan, Syrians Held By Israel, Unfairness Of Life In General
