What the hell is going on with Syria-related leaks in the Israeli press? The last two weeks have seen three themes emerge that are so mind boggling to contemplate that they can't be true:

(1) Olmert is willing or able to make peace with Syria, including a full return to the Golan
(2) There would be broad political and military support for such a peace deal
(3) Such a peace deal would be good or necessary because it is the only way to avert a war with Syria that Israel would lose

The first is just silly. Olmert is gone by August unless Israel is in the middle of a war when the final Winograd Report is released. And if Israel is in a war, trusting in Assad's good will and giving away the Golan will not exactly be polling well. And it would take an incredibly strong Prime Minister in any case to overcome massive public opposition to a withdrawal from the Golan, a withdrawal the Israeli public sees no reason to support and many reasons to reject.

The second just can't be right. All polls show that public opposition to a full withdrawal - which everyone knows is the price of a peace deal - running above 70%. But if that was true - and it is - you'd expect to see politicians demagoguing the issue. And while there's some of that, most media reports are of politicians and military advisers speaking in favor of negotiations. We were a little skeptical about Ha'aretz's implication of broad support across the spectrum, but what was nonetheless notable was the absence of vociferous opposition. Even Shas has pointedly refused to attack Olmert for reportedly offering Assad the Golan - even though they left the Netanyahu government partly over that issue.

And it's not just politicians: YNet pulled the same stunt a couple weeks ago. Except instead of politicians, they ran "Senior IDF officials urge Olmert to talk to Assad". They also wrote the following words in the following order, to create the following surreal sentences:

It simply cannot be the case that "top IDF officials assume" those things. Top IDF officials, you see, are not retarded. No one can seriously think that giving Assad the Golan will pull him away from Iran, which supplies his weapons. To lessen Assad's thirst for weapons, a peace deal would have to (a) suppress his paranoia about Jews, (b) suppress his paranoia about internal dissent, and (c) suppress his paranoia about Turkey. That means it would have to transform everything we know about (a) the ideology of Arab nationalism, (b) the psychology of absolute dictators, and (c) geography. Yet JPost ran the the exact. same. story. Except instead of Israeli politicians or IDF officials, they had Western diplomats spouting this precise nonsense.

As to whether a deal can be justified - come on. Even assuming you think that Assad would be genuine - and honestly, really? - there are still only two ways you can believe that a peace deal would help Israel militarily: (a) you think it would weaken Hezbollah in a way that matters or (b) you think Syria can beat Israel in a conventional war.

The first is if you believe that Iranian support to Hezbollah is meaningless without Syrian territory through which to smuggle weapons. But Hezbollah is already restocked for the next war, which will decide the regional balance anyway - either Israel will all but wipe it out or it will resign itself to slow attrition and atrophy. Another perceived stalemate, no matter how militarily unjustified that perception is, would damage its deterrent to the point where the blood in the water would create an unmanageable and undeterrable feeding frenzy. This isn't exactly a secret.

The second reason a peace deal might be necessary is because Syria represents a genuine threat to Israel. But even coupled with Hezbollah opening up a second front, does the IDF really think that Assad can retake the Golan conventionally? Sure Assad can engage Israel in a Lebanon II style war of attrition where he bombs major Israeli population centers and causes Israeli life to grind to a halt - but to capture and hold territory? Really? And yet, incredibly, there are reports that the IDF believes that he intends to and can do exactly that. But that would require Syrian air superiority - or at least parity - sufficient to hold off the IDF until the UN has intervened on Assad's behalf. This isn't a guerrilla army that can just slink into a village - to occupy territory, Syria actually has to be in that territory. And this isn't some decentralized operation - this is an army, with headquarters and barracks and C3I facilities. The last time Israel entered Syrian airspace to destroy their radar facilities, Syria didn't even bother scrambling their jets. Really? It's true that Syria has vastly improved its anti-aircraft assets (thanks Russia!) - but enough to achieve parity with the IDF? Plus Israeli intelligence purportedly doesn't think that Assad will start a war anyway.

Here's the only thing we can come up with. It sounds specious, but we're grasping at straws here: Israel thinks that war with Syria is inevitable, and is laying the groundwork to claim that they made every last effort at achieving peace. In that world, leaks that Israel does not think Assad will start a war become disinformation. But you never want to reason by assuming that disproof ("Israel doesn't think that Assad will start a war") as proof of the opposite. And that would imply (a) that Israel's diplomatic and military forces were talking to each other and cooperating and (b) that they had the foresight to plan an effective PR strategy. But those two assumptions are just as far-fetched as anything else, so we're back to just blinking in disbelief.

References:
* Olmert Offers Golan To Assad In Exchange For Worthless Piece Of Paper. Whatever. [MR]]
* Right-wing blasts PM over Syria report [JPost]
* Senior IDF officials urge Olmert to talk to Assad [YNet]
* Israel urged to woo Syria away from Iran [JPost]
* Hezbollah Getting Ready To Start Another War [MR]
* Security cabinet to be briefed on arming of Syrian forces [Ha'aretz]
* Syria Modernizing Its Airforce With Russian Help - War With Israel On The Horizon [MR]
* MI: Syria's Assad preparing for war, but won't initiate [Ha'aretz]

Previously:
* This Summer's War With Syria - Sucking Up To Dictators Doesn't Work Edition
* This Summer's War With Syria - Syria Openly Brags About Preparing For War
* This Summer's War With Syria, Iranian Coordination Edition