Mere Rhetoric: Purdue Nuclear Strategy Expert: Bomb Iran Now

We've only cited Purdue nuclear strategy guru Louis Rene Beres a couple of times: once to defend Olmert's accidental-but-not-really nuclear disclosure and once to explain why a nuclear Iran makes nuclear war inevitable - even and especially if Israel tried to signal that it was backing down. Nonetheless, he's undoubtedly one of the preeminent theorists of nuclear strategy and international proliferation diplomacy, having run dozens of scenarios and war games from multiple methodologies.

And he says that we have to bomb Iran right now:

Iran's latest defiance of the [IAEA] says it all: Further diplomacy has no chance of stopping Iran's nuclear program. Neither will UN sanctions have any effect. Unless there is a timely defensive first strike at pertinent elements of Iran's expanding nuclear infrastructures, it will acquire nuclear weapons. The consequences would be intolerable and unprecedented.... Iran must be stopped immediately... and this can only be accomplished through "anticipatory self-defense."... A nuclear Iran would not resemble any other nuclear power. There could be no stable "balance of terror" involving that Islamic Republic.... a world with a nuclear-armed Iran could explode at any moment.

Risks of giving diplomacy more time to fail:

Although it might still seem reasonable to suggest a postponement of preemption... the collateral costs of any such delay could be unendurable.... Due to delays, the success of strikes against certain key Iranian targets may already be in doubt. Worse, such strikes would probably entail high civilian casualties because Iran has deliberately placed sensitive military assets amid civilian populations - an international crime called "perfidy."

Probability of success:

They would be effective because the US has at its disposal the "McInerney Plan"... It calls, in part, for an immediate strike force to hit Iran's nuclear development facilities, command and control centers, integrated air defenses, selected Air Force and Navy units, and its Shahab-3 missiles, using more than 2,500 aim points. Operationally, the United States Air Force is best configured for such a complex task, but it would not necessarily be impossible for the Israeli Air Force to execute.

That's probably all we can slip in under fair use. This is a rare, genuine recommendation that you read the whole thing. We know that you know that we don't push articles on you just because they're red meat. This article, though very short, has lots more analysis about the potential costs and benefits of preemption. It also has one of the clearest explanations we've read for why Israeli preemption is justified under centuries of international law. So read the whole thing (h/t: MR reader Joel)

References:
* The case for strikes against Iran [CSM]
* Olmert's Disclosure Of Israel's Nuclear Capability: At Wost, Harmless [MR]
* Although They're Close in the Alphabet, Iran is Not Iraq [MR]

Previously:
* Iran: Trying To Make Us Stop Building Nukes Will Make Us Build Nukes
* The Countdown To An Iran Strike Has Begun In Jerusalem and Washington
* SCORE! Iran Blames the Jews for Benedict's Statement!

Cross-posted to:
* Israpundit
* The Astute Bloggers