Mere Rhetoric: Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-05-08

The Knesset overwhelmingly rejected the no confidence motions that sought to oust Olmert. As the cool kids say, prediction confirmed. Honestly, someone should be paying us to do this. No really. If anyone wants to pay us to do this...

That makes Kadima's suggestion that Likud replace Labor a lot more reasonable than it sounds. Play this out as if you're Bibi: even if Labor leaves the coalition, the government probably still won't be toppled in a vote of no confidence. Arab MKs will provide an adequate Knesset safety net because they don't want to replace Olmert with Bibi any sooner than they have to. And if Labor leaves, it means that the Labor Chair becomes the leader of the opposition (because he's going to be the leader of the largest party not in the government). So Bibi is looking at being out of any position of control through the regular elections in 2008. No one can know what the security situation will be by then. Maybe Labor will be led by a popular figure who's been in the spotlight for a year. Maybe a Kadima-led coalition will have won a decisive war. Maybe there will be a comprehensive peace deal on the table that people don't want Bibi to derail. Now compare that to the alternative: Olmert hands over the Defense portfolio and responsibility for security to Bibi. If things go poorly, it's because "Olmert is still interfering". If things go well, it's because Bibi is rehabilitating the government. Meanwhile, Bibi says that he had to take it because the threats from Hezbollah and Iran are eminent - he didn't want to play second fiddle, but he did it for the good of the country. The catch is it might confirm the publics' perception of him as being overly ambitious. But they'll probably overlook that because (a) he'd be right and (b) they'd still get Kadima's centrist social agenda, which gives them the perfect combination of all the good security Bibi and none of the scary corrupt PM Bibi.

Kadima - Even if you care about the jockeying inside Kadima for Finance Minister, YNet has more information than you want to know. You're welcome.

Labor - Tuesday brainteaser: what could make Israel's sitting Defense Minister - a man picked out by a state commission for having no understanding of military tactics or strategy; a man who is thought to have let glib catchphrases substitute for clear vision - even more of an intellectual laughing stock? How about blaming Olmert for not making more territorial concessions to the Palestinians and Syrians? Would that do it? We think it would. He also talked positively about the Saudi Israeli Suicide Initiative. MR sends its deepest compliments to Labor primary voters.

Likud - Finally, an article about Netanyahu - and wouldn't you know it, it's all about how his negatives are so high that he's going to have trouble with any credible opponent. And that's in an article supporting him. Now where have we heard something like that before?

Answer to yesterday's homework - Ehud Barak, who is running for Labor chair at the end of this month, is not a sitting cabinet minister. He has indicated that he if he wins he's likely to pull out of the government even though this will probably bring Netanyahu to power. That puts the Israeli right in the position of having to hope for Barak to succeed. We, having no particular affection for either the political right or left in Israel, find that to be totally awesome.

References:
* Knesset rejects 3 no-confidence motions [YNet]
* PM aide: Kadima to ask Likud to join coalition if Labor pulls out [Ha'aretz]
* Our next finance minister [YNet]
* Peretz: Olmert lacks political agenda [YNet]
* The power of Bibiphobia [YNet]
* Netanyahu Launches Campaign to Oust Olmert. He'd Better Act Fast. [MR]
* Barak at focus of Labor debate on bolting gov't [Ha'aretz]
* The meeting / Uncomfortable alliance [Ha'aretz]
* Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-05-07 - It's Futile No Confidence Motion Day In the Knesset [MR]