It's been a while since we had these, so let's review the rules of the game. There are 120 members of the Israeli Knesset. The Knesset can dissolve itself and force new elections by passing a resolution of no-confidence in the government. This only requires a simple majority, so abstaining or being absent is not a de facto vote of support. MKs from different parties will vote for certain no-confidence measures and not others. That used to be a matter of ideology - a leftist MK might vote no-confidence because of low wages but abstain when the motion is about why evacuating settlements is bad. Now it's also an electoral issue, since new rules require that any no-confidence motion include a proposal about who the alternative Prime Minister would be.

Two no-confidence motions will be brought before the Knesset today, and both will fail by not a small amount (not least of which because the alternative candidates they support are not particularly well-liked). The Olmert coalition is made up of five parties with a total of 78 Knesset seats: Kadima (29), Labor (19), Shas (12), Israeli Beiteinu (11), and the Gil "we're here because Israeli stoners who should have been voting Kadima wanted to lodge a protest vote, make Amir Peretz the Defense Minister, and bungle a war" Pensioners Party (7). That's 78 people who should be voting in favor of the government. Olmert has already secured Shas, Israeli Beiteinu, and Gil. That leaves only Kadima and Labor MKs as wildcards, and it's doubtful that there will be sufficient defections in either party. Unless the Gil MKs are on naptime while the votes are taking place, Olmert should be good through July.

Kadima - Another Kadima MK will join Avigdor Yitzhaki, who resigned as coalition chairman, in committing political suicide. Yitzhaki and MK Marina Solodkin will abstain from supporting the government in the no confidence motions, bringing the magic number down to 76. Now for some subtraction... carry the 1... and that's still a minimum of 15 MKs to lose before there's even a mathematical risk that the government falls.

Labor - A couple of Labor backbenchers intend to join their Kadima colleagues and commit political suicide by bucking the probable Labor Party decision and voting against the government. But the same logic that caused us to declare that Olmert will survive still should hold: sitting Kadima and Labor cabinet ministers know that they will lose their jobs if there's a new election. So they will not bring down this government unless absolutely necessary. The Labor Party as a whole an extra incentive that we alluded to a couple of days ago: an election now would pit a united Likud party against a disorganized Labor party about to go into an bloody primary. So Labor as a whole doesn't want elections now, and Labor cabinet ministers definitely don't want elections in the near future. There are 8 cabinet ministers. Even if all 11 non-cabinet MKs voted no confidence, there would still be 65 MKs voting for the government. That's 4 more than Olmert needs to survive the motions even if everyone else was voting no confidence - and since some are abstaining instead, it's way more than he needs.

Likud - Netanyahu blah blah blah certain to be the next Prime Minister unless things change blah blah blah which they will.

Homework - Under what potential scenario could Olmert lose win (thanks Lynn!) these no confidence motions but still not survive until the summer? Hint: "Labor cabinet ministers definitely don't want elections in the near future". Answer tomorrow.

References:
* Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-5-03 - Labor Gets To Decide Olmert's Fate? Are You Kidding? [MR]
* Kadima MKs to abstain on no-confidence [JPost]
* Coalition MKs weigh opposing gov't in Mon. no-confidence bid [Ha'aretz]
*Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-05-01 - Reminder: Olmert's Not Going Anywhere [MR]
* Netanyahu Launches Campaign to Oust Olmert. He'd Better Act Fast. [MR]

Previously:
* Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-05-04 - Yawn
* Israeli Political Updates - 2007-04-29 - Sorry Folks, Olmert's Not Going Anywhere
* Israel Politics Roundup - 2007-05-02 - Olmert Not Looking So Great