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Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-05-04 - Yawn

There was a large protest. It didn't really change anything. The fate of the government still rests with Labor, and no one in Labor has any interest in helping either the government in general or Olmert personally. Peretz blames Olmert for his own failures during Lebanon II (how typical), while Barak and Ayalon certainly gain nothing by keeping Labor in the coalition.

Kadima - Olmert will give Livni another chance. Lots of potential motives: not wanting to damage what little is left of Kadima, wanting to keep Livni personally invested in the government's success, sheer malice of not letting her off easy and forcing her to toe his line, and - although we recognize this is a stretch - not wanting to put anyone popular within striking distance of the Prime Minister's portfolio. There's a world of difference between having Shual Mofaz as deputy Prime Minister and having Livni in that position. It seems like some people might be inclined to think that PM Livni - who, to the extent that Lebanon II was lost diplomatically, was not overly successful as a Foreign Minister - is a less attractive option than even PM Olmert.

Labor - Labor MK Paz-Pines has voted to camp out in a tent until the current government resigns. That's because Labor MK Paz-Pines is kind of a tool. Also, it's going to be a Cindy Sheehan hunger strike kind of deal, in that he won't really be doing it all the time - just the time when he's not busy campaigning for Labor leader. This, also, is because Labor MK Paz-Pines is kind of a tool. His best chance to win the Labor primary is to have a plane carrying Ami Ayalon crash on top of a car being driven by Ehud Barak. And even then he might lose to Barak's wife (obligatory caveat: Labor primary voters collectively have the IQ of an under-watered houseplant, and therefore all rational predictions about their voting patterns are done purely as an exercise in political calculation).

Likud - Netanyahu, etc.

References:
* Over 100,000 rally in Tel Aviv to call on PM, Peretz to resign [Ha'aretz]
* Kadima, PM fear Winograd backlash will push Labor to quit government [Ha'aretz]
* Olmert won't fire Livni – if she falls in line [YNet]
* PM Livni? Are we crazy? [YNet]
* Paz-Pines vows to camp out at PMO until Olmert resigns [JPost]

Previously:
* Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-5-03 - Labor Gets To Decide Olmert's Fate? Are You Kidding?
* Israel Politics Roundup - 2007-05-02 - Olmert Not Looking So Great
* Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-05-01 - Reminder: Olmert's Not Going Anywhere

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