Mere Rhetoric: Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-5-03 - Labor Gets To Decide Olmert's Fate? Are You Kidding?

Anne Lieberman posts on a conference call with Yuval Steinitz, who was estimating resignation at between two weeks to a few months. The first estimate is bold although increasingly the conventional wisdom, but the second is a certainty. Olmert is certainly out by summer one way or another. We're still just barely inclined to think that he'll last through July, but he's certainly about to get hit by a pretty brutal storm. 65 percent of Israelis think he should resign, and major rally demanding his resignation is set for Tel Aviv tonight (not a good place for a centrist to have no support). At least four no confidence motions will be filed in the Knesset on Monday. Israel Beiteinu, Shas, and Gil will continue to support Olmert, which means that the deciding votes will come from Labor and any Kadima rebels .

Kadima - Kadima's Coalition chair says Olmert has to go. No surprise there - Itzchaky, though he's rumored to have his eyes on the party leadership, is a Livni ally. And now that Olmert has managed to rally the rest of Kadima behind him (nb. never question us in front of the children again), Livni herself has like 5 days left as Foreign Minister. Poorly played on her part: she had the opportunity to resign like an indignant citizen, and now she's going to get fired like a rebellious underling. Kadima MKs are under no illusions about the stakes: If Olmert falls before having a chance to try to fix his mistakes or win a war, it's the end of Kadima.

Likud - Likudniks have finally figured out that this is the best opportunity that they're going to have in a while. Kadima is in disgrace and Labor - with a primary coming up at the end of May - is about to go into total disarray. Good news for Likud: Bibi is about to go on the offensive. Bad news for Likud: Israelis are about to be reminded that Bibi is running the Likud. As long as the alternatives are Olmert and Peretz that's not a problem. But neither of those two people will be running in the next election.

Labor - Peretz is thinking of resigning. Then again, maybe he won't resign until after the Labor primary. Whatever. By the end of this month his political career will be permanently over (unless Labor primary voters decide to bring him back in a year or two, which, well, you know...) Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Minor Parties - If anyone has any idea why Avigdor Lieberman has chosen to support Olmert, please let us in on the secret. As opposed to Bibi, Israel Beiteinu's rightwing leader has betrayed exactly zero settlers and has turned over exactly zero Biblical Jewish towns to the Palestinians. That should theoretically set him up to lead Israel's right in the next election. And yet, apparently not. We'd ask the same question of Shas, but they're opportunists and probably managed to squeeze some sort of welfare concession out of him.

References:
* Balagan! The government is poised to fall [BtB]
* Poll: Israelis want Olmert out [YNet]
* Knesset special session opens battle to topple Olmert [JPost]
* Olmert must step down, coalition chairman says [YNet]
* MPs back beleaguered Israeli PM [BBC]
* Israel's Peretz mulling resignation within two days:report [Xinhua]
* Peretz aides: Defense Minister is undecided on whether to resign [Ha'aretz]