UPDATE (09:49 PST):
Well, that answers that question:

Bold. Stupid. But bold.

ORIGINAL:
Remember how we said that there's no way that Livni can form a critical mass to overthrow Olmert? Yeah. We might have called that putt a little early.

Kadima - The critical phrase is "honorable departure", and if one was available Olmert might be persuaded to take it. Except any exit before the final report is issued in July would be humiliating (not to mention logically untenable, since this early report laid significant blame on Barak and Sharon's policies as well). And yet - even Olmert is now publicly admitting that he might not make it. The thing is, when he said that he also added that his ouster would be the end of the Kadima-led coalition. Which is true. Which is why we still don't think that Livni will succeed in ousting him.

X-factor 01: If Kadima members think that Olmert's overthrow is inevitable, then they'll want to do it themselves. But now it becomes a weird game theory headache, where they have to decide whether to (a) support him so he looks like he has enough internal support to face the opposition or (b) get to him before the opposition does. It's probably optimal for them to have him stay in power until July, but if they don't think that's possible they may try to get to him first.

X-factor 02: In the meantime, Olmert is much meaner than Livni. He also has every intention of snuffing out the Kadima rebellion, and he doesn't particularly care if he has to destroy Livni to do it. If he pushes too hard, though, she'll just leave the coalition - or the party - and take whatever public support Kadima still has with her. Another thing for Kadima members to consider while they're deciding which side they want to be on.

As if that wasn't complicated enough, there has to be a Kadima member who makes the first move. But Livni is hamstrung because she can't make it look like she's undermining Olmert (unless he's so weak by late tomorrow that she can make it look that way). But other Kadima power brokers might not want to take the first step and undermine Olmert for Livni, because right now she's the one set to replace him - and they might want the job. JPost doesn't mince words:

Likud - In terms of not wanting to seem ambitious, Netanyahu is in the same position that Livni is. Except for him it's worse because he's already stereotyped as a schemer (the "most American of Israeli politicians"). With Israel's right wing mobilizing for new elections, it probably behooves him to quietly solidify his position within the Likud and stay out of the Olmert controversy.

Labor - Barak is out in front of the post-Winograd media scene. We'd say that he's wasting his time because Ami Ayalon is clearly going to win the May 28 Labor primary. Except, given that we're about to get burned on our Olmert predictions, we're going to take a little break from prognosticating. Also: Labor primary voters have the electoral sophistication of our grad student cubicle.

Incidentally, 85 percent of Israelis want Olmert to resign and only 9 percent support him. See what we mean about Labor primary voters?

References:
* Kadima rebellion against Olmert gathers pace [JPost]
* Olmert admits: I am not sure I will get through this [JPost]
* PM aides: Olmert will quit if told to [YNet]
* Olmert-Livni tensions flare up over Winograd [Ha'aretz]
* Haaretz poll: 40% want elections, 68% say Olmert should resign [Ha'aretz]

Previously:
* Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-05-01 - Reminder: Olmert's Not Going Anywhere
* Israeli Political Updates - 2007-04-29 - Sorry Folks, Olmert's Not Going Anywhere
* Israeli Political Roundup - Labor Voters are Total Fucking Idiots Edition