Mere Rhetoric: Israeli Politics Roundup - 2007-05-01 - Reminder: Olmert's Not Going Anywhere

FYI - The Israeli Government Press Office has released an English translation of the Winograd Commission's partial report.

Anyway, we're not joking about this. Yes, we know that Eitan Cabel is resigning, but we still don't think that's a threat to the government. We'd like to be spectacularly wrong - but it's not going to happen. Olmert will be Prime Minister at least until the release of the full report in July:

Olmert's associates said they expected Monday to be a difficult day. However, they were not concerned that the interim report would hasten the end of Olmert's political career, because his rivals in Kadima, Labor and Likud all have an interest in allowing him to remain prime minister, at least until release of the final Winograd report in July, which is expected to be more critical. "If anyone thought there would be an effort to overthrow Olmert within Kadima, they were wrong," a senior party official said. "Even the people who are most unsatisfied with Olmert don't think this is the right time to get rid of him."

And if that's not enough, this guarantees that any no-confidence motion will fail in the Knesset:

Yisrael Beiteinu has decided not to leave the coalition, in a support of Olmert. "The party regards the report as a tool and an important stage in learning and implementing the lessons of the war. The party joined the government after the war to try and repair the mistakes... We will continue to implement the conclusions as we set out to do when we joined the government."

Kadima - No one in Kadima wants new elections. Kadima would lose. Badly. There might not even be a Kadima after the next elections. And since Kadima-Labor make up such a huge part of the Knesset, it's doubtful that anyone is going to rock the boat. Then again: watch Livni. While we don't think she's good enough to topple Olmert without triggering new elections, she might be willing to try. Who knows what kind of electoral and party calculations calculations she's making. Don't forget that some Kadima members are former Labor primary voters, and so may lack even rudimentary cognitive skills.

Likud - Now we happen to think that Netanyahu is making a tactical error by staying on the sidelines. By July Israel could well be in another war, which would make political maneuvers impossible. Plus he would destroy all opponents if an election held today. But he's Benjamin Netanyahu and we're not, so all things being equal we recommend that you listen to absolutely nothing we say.

Labor - Except this: Peretz is also under the impression that he'll be keeping his job, but we're not so sure. Labor hawks, in contrast, have no reason to keep their knives sheathed. He's got Ami Ayalon and Ehud Barak breathing down his neck. The former is the former commander of the Navy and former head of Shin Bet. The latter has actually been Defense Minister and Prime Minister. Given that the Winograd Commission specifically singled Peretz out for his inexperience as a Defense Minister, we have a feeling that internal Labor politics are about to get very bloody. Not that they weren't bloody already - they've got a primary election coming up, and not even Labor primary voters have drunk enough lead paint to reelect the only politician in Israel less popular than Olmert. We know we've said things like that before - and Labor primary voters have proven us wrong time and time again - but this time we're reasonably confident. We hope.

References:
* Winograd Commission submits Interim Report [Israeli MFA]
* Israeli Political Updates - 2007-04-29 - Sorry Folks, Olmert's Not Going Anywhere [MR]
* Minister Eitan Cabel resigns [YNet]
* Top Peretz aide says minister won't quit [JPost]
* I have no intention to resign, Olmert says [YNet]
* Israeli Political Roundup - Labor Voters are Total Fucking Idiots Edition [MR]
* 26% of public believes Netanyahu would be best PM [JPost]
* Peretz won't quit over Winograd [JPost]