Things that are true:

(1) The Winograd Committee report is going to be brutal on Olmert and Peretz.

(2) It will result in widespread public and private calls for Olmert's and Peretz's resignation. These won't be demonstrations and counter-demonstrations - only one giant, angry mob.

(3) This government isn't going anywhere. Kadima members know that if this is the issue that brings down Olmert, then Kadima as a party is doomed. Since they left their home parties to join Sharon's centrist party, it's quite doubtful that they're interested in seeing their new party disintegrate. So...

(4) ... they'll definitely wait a couple of months before trying to oust Olmert. At that point, there will be between one and three wars going on, and nobody is going to try to go public against a sitting Prime Minister during a war. And if those wars go well, then everything's back up in the air. If those wars go poorly, then Israel will be facing an existential threat that makes everyday politics moot.

Update (04:10am PST, 4/30): This post originally referred to an "existentialist threat" rather than an "existential threat" to Israel. Thanks to reader David for catching the error. Let this be a lesson children: don't mix Nietzsche and pro-Israel blogging. Nothing good can ever come of it.

References:
* War report scathing for Olmert, Peretz [YNet]
* Leadership braces for Winograd report [YNet]
* Aide: Peretz did not fail as defense minister during war [Ha'aretz]
* Kadima source: Party could oust PM by summer [Ha'aretz]

Previously:
* Arab MKs Promise To Overthrown Olmert Government, But Even They're Not That Stupid
* Arab Parties "Definitely" Prefer Peretz to Olmert
* Olmert Rejects Palestinian Demands For Shalit