Mere Rhetoric: Syria Reorganizing Their Military Hezbollah-Style, Moving SCUDS To the Border To Target Israeli Population Centers

And so it goes:

Noting the apparent success of Hizbollah in bombarding northern Israel with short range rockets, Syria has reorganized its missile and ground forces. It's unclear exactly what Syria is up to, but they have moved 300 of their SCUD missiles closer to Israel, so that these missiles can cover nearly all of Israel. Other rocket systems have been moved as well, along with the 10,000 troops assigned to the "Rocket Force."... What Syria has invested in, is Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. That, and more training for its rocket troops, and its commandos. Thus it appears that Syria is preparing to fight like Hizbollah, in the event of another war with Israel. Fire lots of SCUDs and smaller rockets, use good infantry to fight in border villages, and shoot down Israeli aircraft with modern missile systems. Yeah, that might work

On the other hand, as the article notes, it might not work. The Israeli military doesn't stand still any more than its Arab enemies. The next time that Israel has to go from village to village to root out rockets being fired on Israeli schoolhouses and hospitals, it will know how to do it - at least better than last time.

We also want to emphasize again that Assad is not Siniora. If Syria started launching rockets at Israel, there would be no powerful American administration pushing Israel not to destabilize the government. At least right now the American administration wouldn't protect the Assad regime. A Clinton II or Obama administration, needing Assad's cooperation to ensure a quiet US withdrawal from Iraq, might be a different story.

Israel is under enormous and growing conventional pressure, with Iranian and Russian arms flowing freely right to the edge of Israel's border. Just like in 1973, Israel is literally surrounded by hostile armies and militias set on creating a genocide in the Jewish state. The disaster of the early days of 1973 was caused in part by how, for the first time ever, Israel was facing an army designed to take on the IDF - the Egyptian military had armed and trained itself to take advantage of Israel's incapacities, just as now Hezbollah, Assad, and Hamas have realized that they can launch rockets with impunity from Arab villages. Israel can't stem the tide of rockets - let alone retaliate - without creating the kinds of civilian casualties that would create a global outcry about a "disproportionate response".

Geographically, the situation is worse than it has ever been. Not only has Egypt has been replaced by Gaza and Jordan by the West Bank, but Hezbollah to the north presents a threat from a direction that Israel has no Golan Heights to plug up. Israel probably still doesn't face an existential conventional threat, but rockets launched from Arab villages in the north, northeast, west, and south could inflict thousands of casualties in densely packed population centers like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Israel needs to - at a minimum - clean out the rat nests of tunnels and rockets in the Gaza Strip. As for Lebanon and Syria, there's nothing to do except wait for the inevitable attack and hope that the response is sufficiently crushing.

References:
* Syria Has a New Plan [Strategy Page]

Previously:
* Syria is Hiding Weapons in Civilian Aid Convoys. Of Course They Are.
* Who's Sending Arms to Hezbollah and Syria Today?
* Screw Syria