Mere Rhetoric: Roundup Of Ways Israeli-Syrian War Might Start. As Of This Morning.

* Abject Syrian stupidity:

Syrian President Bashar Assad said Wednesday that Syria is ready for a war with Israel... Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said Sunday that, "If Israel rejects the Arab League peace proposal, resistance will be the only way to liberate the Golan Heights."... Prime Minister Ehud Olmert responded to the threats Wednesday before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. He said Israel has no intention of attacking Syria and opined that Syria will not attack Israel either, but is talking about defending itself if attacked.

Why stupidity? Because Syria can't take Israel in a war. We know that we said that Hezbollah couldn't take Israel in a war, and they fought Israel to a standstill (or, more accurately, they combined mass civilian casualties with international pressure to constrain Israel long enough for the UN to declare a ceasefire, and still suffered enormous military losses - but that's semantics). But Syria is an actual country, not a militia pretending not to have anything to do with a country. They have infrastructure. And - let's not forget - the Bush administration isn't committed to preserving their government.

* Miscalculation:

"We must be wary of miscalculations that might lead Syria and Israel to a conflict they are not interested in," Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned Thursday in a meeting with US Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Olmert stressed that Israel does not plan to attack Syria. In their meeting, the prime minister voiced concern regarding the increasing flow of arms from Syria to Hizbullah in Lebanon, and noted that the international community must ensure that UN Resolution 1701 is implemented in full and that the smuggling stops.

This actually could happen. The Syrian army is stupid. Like corrupt to the core, irrationally filled with the machismo of 1960s and 70s Arab nationalism stupid. They could decide to let Hezbollah off the leash for an afternoon, and some mid-level Hezbollah commander could decide to ignite a regional war. That's not beyond the realm of possibility.

* Hezbollah might decide to do something stupid on their own. No bullet-point for this one, just a reminder. Every day Iran is continues to funnel money and troops into Lebanon under the watchful eye of the UN. Every day, there's a risk that Hezbollah will act on their own. Even without explicit or implicit Syrian support - you think Israel is going to miss another chance to degrade Syrian infrastructure? Especially with all the reports of Syria buying cutting edge SAMs from Russia?

References:
* Syria Threatens War, Olmert Dismissive
* Hezbollah Probably Lost the War, But They May Never Have Been In It To Win
* Olmert: Misunderstanding might lead to war - Israel News, Ynetnews

Previously:
* Syria is Hiding Weapons in Civilian Aid Convoys. Of Course They Are.
* Confusion About Whether Israel is Going to Bomb Syria: Not Just MR
* Guardian: We're Not Sure that Hezbollah and Iran are Working Together