There are two elections coming up in Iran - one for local elections and one for the Council of Guardians - that could turn out to be setbacks for Ahmadinejad. Up till now it was just assumed that he would suppress turnout and enable his rural base to dominate. But now it looks like that might not work out, and pro-business groups might make some electoral trouble for him. We're going to try to get ahead of the inevitable - the inevitable - "look at how Iran is moderating" frames from mainstream journalists. There three two reasons why, if Ahmadinejad takes a drubbing, it doesn't signal anything of the sort:

(1) Ahmadinejad not gaining more power is not the same thing as him losing power. Iran choosing not to be even more crazy is not "moderation". The difference is between the lunatics who are in power now - the ones enabling the whole Holocaust denying, wiping out Israel policy - and even crazier lunatics. It's not moderation if we come into your house and start beating you, but don't bother also shooting you in the face (why would we possibly use such an awful analogy? It's early and we're grumpy... sorry)

(2) The two elections actually don't change anything at all - at best, they're opaque signals about what's really going on:

(3) The "moderates" are being led by former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani. That would be Hashemi Rafsanjani of Iran should most definitely nuke Israel fame. So we're not really convinced that he's that moderate, ya know?

Previously: Things That Are Awesome About The Recent "Don't Worry About the Strange, Nazi-Like Iranian Behind the Curtain" LA Times / CFR Article, Los Angeles Times Dishonest about Pentagon-Funded Report, Recommends Israel Disarm, Iran Not Sure What Everyone's So Pissed Off About - Nuking Israel is Long Established Policy