Abbas Is Lying Either To Israel or To the Palestinians - Either Way, It Makes a Peace Deal Impossible
For a moderate, Abbas is sounding a lot like Arafat:
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' stated recognition of Israel's right to exist is part of a "political calculation" aimed at ultimately destroying the Jewish state, a terror group leader and member of Abbas' Fatah party told WND in an interview. The leader said the Fatah party does not recognize Israel and that any final accord that doesn't include flooding the Jewish state with millions of Palestinians will not be supported by the Fatah party and will lead to Palestinian civil war. "The base of our Fatah movement keeps dreaming of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jaffa and Akko," said Abu Ahmed, Fatah member and leader of the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades in the northern Gaza Strip. "There is no change in our position. Abbas recognizes Israel because of pressure that the Zionists and the Americans are exercising on him. We understand this is part of his obligations and political calculations."
Now some people say that moderate Arab politicians need to be able to say these kinds of things in order to keep their credibility with the Arab street. That might sound reasonable at first, and it's in fact one of the oldest, most tired 'arguments' that liberal cocktail party goers pass off as 'nuance' about the Middle East. But the only way that it can make sense is if you don't understand anything about the history or the stakes of Middle East peacemaking (cf. above). The problem with this strategy is that it de facto concedes to the so-called street that it's OK for them to demand that politicians never give up on destroying Israel as a litmus test for legitimacy. Which (a) suffocates the space for potential reformers to take brave stances and win allies (b) guarantees that the vast majority of the Palestinian public will never moderate enough to make peace a likelihood. So the problem isn't necessarily the Arafat-style of 'Abbas's overtures to Israel are fundamentally insincere'. All things being equal, Abbas is probably closer in sensibility to Peres than he is to Arafat - there's probably more truth in what he's telling Israel about his desires for a negotiated settlment than in what he's telling the Palestinian street about his desire to wipe out the Jewish State. But the fact that he has to lie to the Palestinian public about his intentions is (a) proof that there's too much popular radicalism for Israel to safely make concession (b) a necessary tactic to keep his power that nonetheless undercuts any ability for him to make peace with Israel - the very definition of a double-bind. The only solution is to wait a generation, two generations, maybe longer - and see if enough Palestinians come around to the idea that peace with Israel would be kind of nicer than trying to wipe out Israelis.
Put another way: it's suicidal for Israel to make security concessions to someone who can't reciprocate in the context of a peace deal. That Abbas can't admit that he wants peace with Israel is the very definition of a demonstration that he's too weak to make peace - if he tries, he'll be overthrown and any concessions that Israel had made in the interim will be used to murder Israeli civilians. The current disaster of Hamas not recognizing obligations made by previous Palestinian peace negotiators is a stark demonstration of exactly this dynamic. You don't need complex theorizing to analyze a situation as simple as the Israeli-Palestinian peace process: genocidal intentions toward Israel run so deep that peacemakers can't afford to suggest that peace is their motive - because if anyone suspects that it is, they'll be overthrown.
UPDATE: In the meantime, let's pressure the Israelis to give Abbas some money and concessions anyway.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' stated recognition of Israel's right to exist is part of a "political calculation" aimed at ultimately destroying the Jewish state, a terror group leader and member of Abbas' Fatah party told WND in an interview. The leader said the Fatah party does not recognize Israel and that any final accord that doesn't include flooding the Jewish state with millions of Palestinians will not be supported by the Fatah party and will lead to Palestinian civil war. "The base of our Fatah movement keeps dreaming of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jaffa and Akko," said Abu Ahmed, Fatah member and leader of the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades in the northern Gaza Strip. "There is no change in our position. Abbas recognizes Israel because of pressure that the Zionists and the Americans are exercising on him. We understand this is part of his obligations and political calculations."
Now some people say that moderate Arab politicians need to be able to say these kinds of things in order to keep their credibility with the Arab street. That might sound reasonable at first, and it's in fact one of the oldest, most tired 'arguments' that liberal cocktail party goers pass off as 'nuance' about the Middle East. But the only way that it can make sense is if you don't understand anything about the history or the stakes of Middle East peacemaking (cf. above). The problem with this strategy is that it de facto concedes to the so-called street that it's OK for them to demand that politicians never give up on destroying Israel as a litmus test for legitimacy. Which (a) suffocates the space for potential reformers to take brave stances and win allies (b) guarantees that the vast majority of the Palestinian public will never moderate enough to make peace a likelihood. So the problem isn't necessarily the Arafat-style of 'Abbas's overtures to Israel are fundamentally insincere'. All things being equal, Abbas is probably closer in sensibility to Peres than he is to Arafat - there's probably more truth in what he's telling Israel about his desires for a negotiated settlment than in what he's telling the Palestinian street about his desire to wipe out the Jewish State. But the fact that he has to lie to the Palestinian public about his intentions is (a) proof that there's too much popular radicalism for Israel to safely make concession (b) a necessary tactic to keep his power that nonetheless undercuts any ability for him to make peace with Israel - the very definition of a double-bind. The only solution is to wait a generation, two generations, maybe longer - and see if enough Palestinians come around to the idea that peace with Israel would be kind of nicer than trying to wipe out Israelis.
Put another way: it's suicidal for Israel to make security concessions to someone who can't reciprocate in the context of a peace deal. That Abbas can't admit that he wants peace with Israel is the very definition of a demonstration that he's too weak to make peace - if he tries, he'll be overthrown and any concessions that Israel had made in the interim will be used to murder Israeli civilians. The current disaster of Hamas not recognizing obligations made by previous Palestinian peace negotiators is a stark demonstration of exactly this dynamic. You don't need complex theorizing to analyze a situation as simple as the Israeli-Palestinian peace process: genocidal intentions toward Israel run so deep that peacemakers can't afford to suggest that peace is their motive - because if anyone suspects that it is, they'll be overthrown.
UPDATE: In the meantime, let's pressure the Israelis to give Abbas some money and concessions anyway.
