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OneJerusalem.org Conference Call: Dick Morris - (2) GOP Will Lose Senate and House

One of the most successful political minds on the planet stated unequivocally that he believes that electoral trends will see Democrats taking control of both chambers of the US Congress in November. He built up to that conclusion after we asked him to offer midterms predictions, but he began by talking the more fundamental underlying dynamic: "the country wants to vote Democrat". This is a structural reality that can be maybe mitigated if Bush emphasizes terrorism, but it's significantly more complicated than being 'just another issue'. Rather than Bush limiting the general sense of anti-GOP dissatisfaction, that dissatisfaction also limits how much he can do: "every single day" Bush has to emphasize terrorism just to keep the Republicans from losing ground. Jim Hoft is the only person we noticed even passing these phrases along, but that was a later part of his post so he never really explored the full magnitude of what's at play. It's not just that the political dynamics present Republicans with an uphill climb: it's so powerful that it means that they can only go in one direction - down. The Republicans can't climb up the electoral hill - the very, very best they can do is not slip and tumble. Even accomplishing that much requires enormous will and luck - for them to hold their ground at all the Democrats will have to continue they current practice of almost willfully fumbling the terrorism issue - and Morris thinks they'll get their act together. But even if he's wrong on what the Democrats will do, notice what his very compelling description does to the hopes-against-hope of many conservatives: it means that Democratic misplays don't really matter because the national mood will sweep everything along anyway. Just about everyone has pointed by now that it's folly to underestimate the Democratic aptitude for wresting defeat from the jaws of victory. What Morris explains is that even if Democrats do everything in their power to lose, even they can't screw this up. The fundamentals are just too overwhelming - the frustrations of voters at GOP Congressional scandals (and subsequent near-total failures to reform) have pretty much hardened into a weight that will sink the GOP.

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  • Omri Ceren is a PhD candidate studying Rhetoric at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication. He lives in downtown Los Angeles.

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