Obviously, Lebanon Eroded Israel's Deterrent
General Amon Yadlin isn't sure how the war will effect Israel's deterrence:
Turning to Lebanon, Yadlin said that it was too early to judge how the war has impacted on Israel's deterrence in the region. On the one hand he said that the Arab world saw that Israel was very determined and willing to go to war over the kidnapping of its soldiers and the firing of Katyusha rockets. On the other hand, he said, Hizbullah was spinning the war as a victory, and "we are to close to be able to judge the ramifications."
Let's see if we can take an educated guess:
As he watched the mighty Israeli army held at bay by a small band of Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, Marshoud said he understood its implications for the Palestinians' own resistance movement. "We've been doing everything wrong," the 26-year-old said. "Hezbollah has shown us the way. After years in the wilderness, Hezbollah has given us hope." Marshoud and other Palestinians involved in the fight against Israel say they must emulate Hezbollah's guerrilla war tactics and training, its political savvy and its abundant funding from outside sources if it is to challenge Israel with any effectiveness. Mohammed Salman, 24, says the Palestinian movement needs a top-to-bottom revival. "Our resistance is over. No one wants to admit it, but we've failed," he said. "We have to rebuild our movement, from the ground up, and the obvious model is Hezbollah."
The difference, of course, is that the Palestinians don't have more than half a decade to build bunkers and import tens of thousands of rockets and missiles. Also, they suck at fighting (so much so we think it's plausible to suggest that one of the reasons that the IDF took so long to win militarily in Lebanon was because they were used to fighting snipers who can't hit anything). We're not exactly sure which way this argument cuts though... Lebanon II definitely emboldened the Palestinians - whether it do so in a way that's militarily significant (i.e. will the Palestinians be able to replicate Hezbollah's tactics successfully) is another question.
Turning to Lebanon, Yadlin said that it was too early to judge how the war has impacted on Israel's deterrence in the region. On the one hand he said that the Arab world saw that Israel was very determined and willing to go to war over the kidnapping of its soldiers and the firing of Katyusha rockets. On the other hand, he said, Hizbullah was spinning the war as a victory, and "we are to close to be able to judge the ramifications."
Let's see if we can take an educated guess:
As he watched the mighty Israeli army held at bay by a small band of Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, Marshoud said he understood its implications for the Palestinians' own resistance movement. "We've been doing everything wrong," the 26-year-old said. "Hezbollah has shown us the way. After years in the wilderness, Hezbollah has given us hope." Marshoud and other Palestinians involved in the fight against Israel say they must emulate Hezbollah's guerrilla war tactics and training, its political savvy and its abundant funding from outside sources if it is to challenge Israel with any effectiveness. Mohammed Salman, 24, says the Palestinian movement needs a top-to-bottom revival. "Our resistance is over. No one wants to admit it, but we've failed," he said. "We have to rebuild our movement, from the ground up, and the obvious model is Hezbollah."
The difference, of course, is that the Palestinians don't have more than half a decade to build bunkers and import tens of thousands of rockets and missiles. Also, they suck at fighting (so much so we think it's plausible to suggest that one of the reasons that the IDF took so long to win militarily in Lebanon was because they were used to fighting snipers who can't hit anything). We're not exactly sure which way this argument cuts though... Lebanon II definitely emboldened the Palestinians - whether it do so in a way that's militarily significant (i.e. will the Palestinians be able to replicate Hezbollah's tactics successfully) is another question.
