Bloggers' Conference Call With Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Earlier today, we were privileged to participate in a bloggers' conference call with former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The interview was organized by Rick Richman of Jewish Current Issues. The other participants were Ed Lasky from American Thinker, Pamela from Atlas Shrugs, Anne Lieberman from Boker Tov, Boulder!, Lynn B from In Context, Paul Mirengoff and Scott Johnson of Power Line, and David Gerstman of Soccer Dad. Pamela (who, we'll spoil the ending for you, is not a big fan of the ceasefire) helped coordinate some of the interview's logistics - you can already go to her site to grab the audio of the interview.
Two themes in Netanyahu's responses bear particular comment: his emphasis on domestic Israeli unity - plus the unstated political calculations that might be driving that emphasis - and his insistence on the inevitability of Western-Islamic conflict - plus the very explicitly stated tactical consequences that he draws from that insistence. Also, David Gertsman got him talking about the blogosphere after we totally bombed on our question - comedy gold followed by interesting commentary!
(1) Domestic unity - The former Prime Minister quite simply refused to be drawn into even the most limited discussions about Israeli politics. He repeatedly declined to speculate about political scenarios, citing the need for national unity as long as soldiers are still in the field. Our and others' past criticism about his political opportunism aside, it's undeniable that some of his concern is genuine.
Still, there are two potential factors influencing Netanyahu that should not be underestimated. First, his future political career relies precisely on his ability to put his reputation for political opportunism behind him. And he knows it - the last month has pretty much just been him giving unequivocal support to Olmert. As ubercommentator Judith Klinghoffer pointed out this morning, Netanyahu's "stellar behavior during the war [has gone] a long way towards rehabilitating his standing with the Israeli public" (although for what it's worth, Klinghoffer's column is about the possibility of a unity government - a possibility that Netanyahu indicated in the interview was unlikely for the foreseeable future).
The other political reality preventing the former Prime Minister from coming out against Olmert is simply that he doesn't have to: in fact, he can only lose by adding his voice to the growing anti-government chorus. Why take the risk of seeming opportunistic when just about everyone else in Israeli society is already calling for Kadima and Labor to be thrown out of office? The right-leaning Jerusalem Post is obviously calling for Olmert's resignation, but so is the left-leaning Ha'aretz. The entire party seems like it's disintegrating. Olmert's Chief of Staff Dan Halutz (actually a Sharon appointee) has maybe a few hours before he has to resign for selling his stocks right after he found out about the Hezbollah kidnapping. Kadima Justice Minister Haim Ramon will probably face sexual harassment charges in the near future, while Kadima MK Tzahi Hanegbi will definitively be indicted for corruption (MR on Hanegbi, 12/07/05: "all but confirmed crook Tzachi Hanegbi... [is] bringing himself and his future corruption indictment into Kadima."). This is not a group of people who have a political future.
So the Israeli public will turn away from Kadima with or without Netanyahu's help. And when they do, who are they going to choose - the guy who's been predicting for years that Hezbollah and Hamas will launch a rocket war, or the guy who thinks that the day after an Israeli military defeat is a great time for himself, the Defense Minister, to get up and call for giving land to Syria and Hamas. Seriously, there are undiscovered tribes of pigmies in the Amazon who have never even heard of Israel who could still do a better job as Defense Minister than Amir Peretz (MR on Peretz, 03/31/06: "the only thing that makes us less giddy than the thought of Peretz controlling the Israeli economy is the thought of Peretz controlling Israeli defenses"). We'd like to take yet another opportunity to thank the students who gave their votes to Gil and thereby prevented Shual Mofaz from becoming Defense Minister. Way to stick it to the Establishment, kids!
Anyway, long story short, Netanyahu will not come out against the Israeli government for at least a while longer - it would be a politically stupid move, and he is not politically stupid, and it would be an unpatriotic move, and he is a patriot.
(2) International conflict - The former Prime Minister repeatedly emphasized that this ceasefire is a mere lull - not only in the Israeli-Arab conflict, but also in the broader conflict between militant Islam and the West. The superficial sectarian conflict between Sunnis and Shiites masks a more fundamental similarity between the Muslim groups that makes a global war all but inevitable. Both groups' armies are dedicated to the reestablishment of an Islamic empire which - and here Netanyahu was explicit - "they intend to resurrect with nuclear terror". With unequivocal and intentional bluntness, he declared early that "President Bush's commitment to prevent Iran from arming itself with nuclear weapons is the most important decision of our time."
The former Prime Minister reiterated two themes in several ways: this war is inevitable because it is being forced upon the West as a matter of ideology and this war will require a kind of tactical division of labor between Israel and the United States. Israel must and will dismantle the Islamists from Hezbollah and Hamas that are sitting on its doorstep (also: "Hamas and Hezbollah should not underestimate the ability of Israel to learn lessons... if they persist in their plans to attack Israel, they will be destroyed"). Nonetheless, it is the United States and only the United States that can "lead its own or an international effort to disarm Iran". He also has a message for Europe: if Israel is the Little Satan and the United States is the big Satan, then Europe is right in between - which is not a safe place to be during a war. Iran's missiles can now reach not only Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, but also London and Paris, something that the Europeans - especially given the radical, unassimilated in their inner cities - seem surreally copasetic about.
(3) The blogosphere - Two things. First, we definitively established that we are the worst interviewers in the history of blogging. Seriously. This is the actual exchange between us and the former Prime Minister of Israel:
Mere Rhetoric: "Good morning Mr. Former Prime Minister this is Omri Ceren from Mere Rhetoric. I'd like to thank you for joining us today. This government's actions during the war confused even non-political actors. STRATFOR described Olmert's behavior during the war as 'perplexing' and suggested that he seemed to be 'geniunely concerned about something, and it's not clear what it is.' Obviously you are not criticizing this government too harshly in the current situation, but I was wondering if you could offer us some thoughts on why Prime Minister Olmert and why Defense Minister Peretz were so hesitant to unleash the IDF against Hezabollah and against the Iranian and Syrian forces in Lebanon."
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: "I don't know."
Compare the "I don't know" that we got to how Soccer Dad David Gerstman managed to get Netanyahu talking about the need for bloggers to emphasize the shared interests of Israel and the United States:
The American public has a pretty good feel for who the bad guys are and who the good guys are. But the important thing is to mobilize the American people to understand that this is not a war between two native tribes... I wish it were... this is the first, opening salvo in Iran's bid for Empire [and] Islam's bid for world dominion... it will use nuclear weapons once it acquires them... you have a matching creed that Al Qaeda would have used nuclear weapons... the only limitation they had was not having the weapons, so they improvised. If Iran has nuclear weapons, then every American is in great peril... it is very important to understand that this is not [just] Israel's war.
Anyway, more proof that Mere Rhetoric is pretty much just playing Charlie Brown to the universe's Lucy. Joking aside, this interview was an amazing opportunity and experience. Paul at Power Line has already declared that he hopes that Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel, and the political reality in Israel may well grant him his hope. We echo everyone who was on the call in thanking Rick Richman for setting up the interview and in expressing our gratitude to former Prime Minister Netanyahu for taking the time to talk to us.
UPDATE: The STRATFOR report that we referenced in our question is behind their subscription wall. It reads in part:
In looking at Israeli behavior -- which has become the most interesting and perplexing aspect of this conflict -- we are struck by an oddity. The Israeli leadership seems genuinely concerned about something, and it is not clear what it is. Obviously, the government doesn't want to take casualties, but this is not a political problem. The Israeli public can deal with high casualties as long as the mission -- in this case the dismantling of Hezbollah's capabilities -- is accomplished. The normal pattern of Israeli behavior is to be increasingly aggressive rather than restrained, and the government is supported. When a government becomes uncertain, it normally reverts to established patterns. We would have expected a major invasion weeks ago, and we did expect it. Something is holding the Israelis back and it is not simply fear of casualties. The increasing confusion and even paralysis of the Israeli government could be explained simply by division and poor leadership. But we increasingly have the feeling that there is an aspect to Israeli thinking that we do not understand, some concern that is not apparent that is holding them back from doing what they would normally do. Hezbollah has fought well, but it is hard to believe that the Israelis can't defeat them or that Israel can't take casualties... However, while there are those who would argue that Israel's inability to decide clearly on a path is simply cover for action, our view is that the situation has gone well beyond that. Hezbollah is not being rattled at all. The Israelis are.
You can reach the entire report (we don't understand how - you certainly can't reach it directly via url) by going through this Google News link. If there was something legitimate - some fear or some intelligence - that was holding Olmert back, then what looks from the outside like inexcusable incompetence might be excused. But if Benjamin Netanyahu knows what that something is, he's certainly not telling.
Two themes in Netanyahu's responses bear particular comment: his emphasis on domestic Israeli unity - plus the unstated political calculations that might be driving that emphasis - and his insistence on the inevitability of Western-Islamic conflict - plus the very explicitly stated tactical consequences that he draws from that insistence. Also, David Gertsman got him talking about the blogosphere after we totally bombed on our question - comedy gold followed by interesting commentary!
(1) Domestic unity - The former Prime Minister quite simply refused to be drawn into even the most limited discussions about Israeli politics. He repeatedly declined to speculate about political scenarios, citing the need for national unity as long as soldiers are still in the field. Our and others' past criticism about his political opportunism aside, it's undeniable that some of his concern is genuine.
Still, there are two potential factors influencing Netanyahu that should not be underestimated. First, his future political career relies precisely on his ability to put his reputation for political opportunism behind him. And he knows it - the last month has pretty much just been him giving unequivocal support to Olmert. As ubercommentator Judith Klinghoffer pointed out this morning, Netanyahu's "stellar behavior during the war [has gone] a long way towards rehabilitating his standing with the Israeli public" (although for what it's worth, Klinghoffer's column is about the possibility of a unity government - a possibility that Netanyahu indicated in the interview was unlikely for the foreseeable future).
The other political reality preventing the former Prime Minister from coming out against Olmert is simply that he doesn't have to: in fact, he can only lose by adding his voice to the growing anti-government chorus. Why take the risk of seeming opportunistic when just about everyone else in Israeli society is already calling for Kadima and Labor to be thrown out of office? The right-leaning Jerusalem Post is obviously calling for Olmert's resignation, but so is the left-leaning Ha'aretz. The entire party seems like it's disintegrating. Olmert's Chief of Staff Dan Halutz (actually a Sharon appointee) has maybe a few hours before he has to resign for selling his stocks right after he found out about the Hezbollah kidnapping. Kadima Justice Minister Haim Ramon will probably face sexual harassment charges in the near future, while Kadima MK Tzahi Hanegbi will definitively be indicted for corruption (MR on Hanegbi, 12/07/05: "all but confirmed crook Tzachi Hanegbi... [is] bringing himself and his future corruption indictment into Kadima."). This is not a group of people who have a political future.
So the Israeli public will turn away from Kadima with or without Netanyahu's help. And when they do, who are they going to choose - the guy who's been predicting for years that Hezbollah and Hamas will launch a rocket war, or the guy who thinks that the day after an Israeli military defeat is a great time for himself, the Defense Minister, to get up and call for giving land to Syria and Hamas. Seriously, there are undiscovered tribes of pigmies in the Amazon who have never even heard of Israel who could still do a better job as Defense Minister than Amir Peretz (MR on Peretz, 03/31/06: "the only thing that makes us less giddy than the thought of Peretz controlling the Israeli economy is the thought of Peretz controlling Israeli defenses"). We'd like to take yet another opportunity to thank the students who gave their votes to Gil and thereby prevented Shual Mofaz from becoming Defense Minister. Way to stick it to the Establishment, kids!
Anyway, long story short, Netanyahu will not come out against the Israeli government for at least a while longer - it would be a politically stupid move, and he is not politically stupid, and it would be an unpatriotic move, and he is a patriot.
(2) International conflict - The former Prime Minister repeatedly emphasized that this ceasefire is a mere lull - not only in the Israeli-Arab conflict, but also in the broader conflict between militant Islam and the West. The superficial sectarian conflict between Sunnis and Shiites masks a more fundamental similarity between the Muslim groups that makes a global war all but inevitable. Both groups' armies are dedicated to the reestablishment of an Islamic empire which - and here Netanyahu was explicit - "they intend to resurrect with nuclear terror". With unequivocal and intentional bluntness, he declared early that "President Bush's commitment to prevent Iran from arming itself with nuclear weapons is the most important decision of our time."
The former Prime Minister reiterated two themes in several ways: this war is inevitable because it is being forced upon the West as a matter of ideology and this war will require a kind of tactical division of labor between Israel and the United States. Israel must and will dismantle the Islamists from Hezbollah and Hamas that are sitting on its doorstep (also: "Hamas and Hezbollah should not underestimate the ability of Israel to learn lessons... if they persist in their plans to attack Israel, they will be destroyed"). Nonetheless, it is the United States and only the United States that can "lead its own or an international effort to disarm Iran". He also has a message for Europe: if Israel is the Little Satan and the United States is the big Satan, then Europe is right in between - which is not a safe place to be during a war. Iran's missiles can now reach not only Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, but also London and Paris, something that the Europeans - especially given the radical, unassimilated in their inner cities - seem surreally copasetic about.
(3) The blogosphere - Two things. First, we definitively established that we are the worst interviewers in the history of blogging. Seriously. This is the actual exchange between us and the former Prime Minister of Israel:
Mere Rhetoric: "Good morning Mr. Former Prime Minister this is Omri Ceren from Mere Rhetoric. I'd like to thank you for joining us today. This government's actions during the war confused even non-political actors. STRATFOR described Olmert's behavior during the war as 'perplexing' and suggested that he seemed to be 'geniunely concerned about something, and it's not clear what it is.' Obviously you are not criticizing this government too harshly in the current situation, but I was wondering if you could offer us some thoughts on why Prime Minister Olmert and why Defense Minister Peretz were so hesitant to unleash the IDF against Hezabollah and against the Iranian and Syrian forces in Lebanon."
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: "I don't know."
Compare the "I don't know" that we got to how Soccer Dad David Gerstman managed to get Netanyahu talking about the need for bloggers to emphasize the shared interests of Israel and the United States:
The American public has a pretty good feel for who the bad guys are and who the good guys are. But the important thing is to mobilize the American people to understand that this is not a war between two native tribes... I wish it were... this is the first, opening salvo in Iran's bid for Empire [and] Islam's bid for world dominion... it will use nuclear weapons once it acquires them... you have a matching creed that Al Qaeda would have used nuclear weapons... the only limitation they had was not having the weapons, so they improvised. If Iran has nuclear weapons, then every American is in great peril... it is very important to understand that this is not [just] Israel's war.
Anyway, more proof that Mere Rhetoric is pretty much just playing Charlie Brown to the universe's Lucy. Joking aside, this interview was an amazing opportunity and experience. Paul at Power Line has already declared that he hopes that Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel, and the political reality in Israel may well grant him his hope. We echo everyone who was on the call in thanking Rick Richman for setting up the interview and in expressing our gratitude to former Prime Minister Netanyahu for taking the time to talk to us.
UPDATE: The STRATFOR report that we referenced in our question is behind their subscription wall. It reads in part:
In looking at Israeli behavior -- which has become the most interesting and perplexing aspect of this conflict -- we are struck by an oddity. The Israeli leadership seems genuinely concerned about something, and it is not clear what it is. Obviously, the government doesn't want to take casualties, but this is not a political problem. The Israeli public can deal with high casualties as long as the mission -- in this case the dismantling of Hezbollah's capabilities -- is accomplished. The normal pattern of Israeli behavior is to be increasingly aggressive rather than restrained, and the government is supported. When a government becomes uncertain, it normally reverts to established patterns. We would have expected a major invasion weeks ago, and we did expect it. Something is holding the Israelis back and it is not simply fear of casualties. The increasing confusion and even paralysis of the Israeli government could be explained simply by division and poor leadership. But we increasingly have the feeling that there is an aspect to Israeli thinking that we do not understand, some concern that is not apparent that is holding them back from doing what they would normally do. Hezbollah has fought well, but it is hard to believe that the Israelis can't defeat them or that Israel can't take casualties... However, while there are those who would argue that Israel's inability to decide clearly on a path is simply cover for action, our view is that the situation has gone well beyond that. Hezbollah is not being rattled at all. The Israelis are.
You can reach the entire report (we don't understand how - you certainly can't reach it directly via url) by going through this Google News link. If there was something legitimate - some fear or some intelligence - that was holding Olmert back, then what looks from the outside like inexcusable incompetence might be excused. But if Benjamin Netanyahu knows what that something is, he's certainly not telling.
