MR Political Roundup - 2006-02-27
Two very brief points as we get back into the swing of things:
(1) AK Sommer is right that Kadima has a corruption problem. Especially with Olmert now being investigated for some sort of real estate something or other, Likud and Labor should be well-placed to accuse Kadima of being rotten. But from a political standpoint, this risk is overblown for one very good reason: no matter how crooked Olmert looks, he will always be less of a crook in the eyes of most Israelis than Bibi or Peretz. Scandals swirling around him are far more likely to make Israelis shrug and conclude that all Israeli politicians are corrupt (which they are) than to make them go to another party.
(2) What might actually hurt Kadima is any perception of internal weakening. Ha'aretz runs a story about discontent regarding the coming shakeup of the Prime Minister Bureau. Now normally we wouldn't trust Ha'aretz to accurately report the colors of Likud or Kadima's campaign posters - let alone to give accurate, not-lying-to-help-Labor information about internal party politics - but this one does have the ring of truth to it. We've commented that Olmert inherited the best political operatives in Israeli politics from Sharon - he'd do well not to alienate them. Of course, here, as in the case of corruption, hatred for Netanyahu and Peretz probably overwhelm anything Olmert can do - Sharon's advisers aren't going to let either of those two off the hook.
(1) AK Sommer is right that Kadima has a corruption problem. Especially with Olmert now being investigated for some sort of real estate something or other, Likud and Labor should be well-placed to accuse Kadima of being rotten. But from a political standpoint, this risk is overblown for one very good reason: no matter how crooked Olmert looks, he will always be less of a crook in the eyes of most Israelis than Bibi or Peretz. Scandals swirling around him are far more likely to make Israelis shrug and conclude that all Israeli politicians are corrupt (which they are) than to make them go to another party.
(2) What might actually hurt Kadima is any perception of internal weakening. Ha'aretz runs a story about discontent regarding the coming shakeup of the Prime Minister Bureau. Now normally we wouldn't trust Ha'aretz to accurately report the colors of Likud or Kadima's campaign posters - let alone to give accurate, not-lying-to-help-Labor information about internal party politics - but this one does have the ring of truth to it. We've commented that Olmert inherited the best political operatives in Israeli politics from Sharon - he'd do well not to alienate them. Of course, here, as in the case of corruption, hatred for Netanyahu and Peretz probably overwhelm anything Olmert can do - Sharon's advisers aren't going to let either of those two off the hook.





