MR Political Roundup - 2006-01-13
Shinui was already polling just at the threshold for entrance into the Knesset. Their primaries just occurred, and in Shinui that happens according to votes in their 170 person ruling body (kind of like the Likud Central Committee, only with no access to politicians able to bribe them). This ruling body decided to destroy their party:
The Shinui party found itself facing a major split Thursday after the party council confounded predictions by ousting one of its founders, MK Avraham Poraz, from the No. 2 spot in the elections for the list of Knesset candidates. The shock result immediately caused Poraz and four other party MKs to withdraw from the race, and Shinui chairman Yosef Lapid is considering quitting the party. As expected, Lapid was reelected to the first place on the list. But the 170-member ruling body gave the second spot to Ron Levinthal, a Tel Aviv councillor who has led the party's internal opposition to the Lapid-Poraz duo. Lapid, who bitterly opposed Levinthal's election, has said several times in the past that he would not remain in Shinui if Poraz were not reelected as his deputy... Lapid immediately abandoned the convention hall, telling one MK he was "going on vacation." And half an hour later, Poraz and four other sitting MKs announced that in light of Levinthal's victory, they would not run for any position on Shinui's list.
Kind of puts Lapid's promise that "the flow of voters to Kadima will stop, and Shinui will regain its power soon" in perspective. Well, this is what happens when you put kids in charge of politics. Shinui's youth vote was all about switching generations and elevating Levinthal. The problem with adolescent rebellion, of course, is that someone still has to pay the rent. Currently, it doesn't seem like any of the people who left Shinui will be going to Kadima, but one can always hope.
The rest of our roundup has Kadima way up, Labor and Likud way down.
Kadima
Improbably, polls continue to show Kadima still gaining momentum. This is largely because the rest of the Israeli political spectrum is committed to implosion, but it also must have something to do with this:
It would be very difficult to find a more loyal team than the circle of aides and advisers around Ariel Sharon, but less than 24 hours after his massive stroke they were already briefing reporters on what a wonderful prime minister Ehud Olmert is going to be... Olmert has inherited the best spin-doctors in Israeli politics, who have been planning since Thursday how to carry out what they now see as Sharon's legacy, ensuring Olmert's ascendancy and, even more important for them, making sure that not only will Binyamin Netanyahu not be elected as the next prime minister, but that his defeat will be so humiliating that he will be forced to leave politics forever... In comparison, Peretz is in for lighter treatment. He will be portrayed as unworthy due to his inexperience or, as the aide put it, "Israel doesn't need another unready prime minister," a reference to the not-so-successful premierships of Ehud Barak and Netanyahu.
Crossing anyone in Israeli politics is always a risky affair, "forgiveness" not being their forte. But crossing one of the most tightly knit and loyal political cliques in Israeli history seems, in retrospect, to have been a particularly incautious idea - look below for what some of Omri Sharon's friends did in the Likud this week. These people used to have goals and purposes - in light of Sharon's collapse, they feel that they now instead have duties and obligations.
Likud
Primary season in the Likud is always a party. Several parties, in fact - filled with music and free food and promises of political favors (rumor on the street was that Netanyahu banned the music and free food this year). Primary results were very gratifying - most of the 'rebels' who drove PM Sharon out of the Likud party got trounced like the pathetic burnouts that they are in today's primaries:
Many Likud "rebel" MKs who opposed the disengagement found themselves without a realistic place on the party's Knesset list on Thursday, as the members of the Likud Central Committee voted to determine the party's candidates for the March elections... MK Uzi Landau, the erstwhile head of the anti-pullout "rebels" and former leadership candidate, made the 14th place on the list... Associates of former MK Omri Sharon who remained in the Likud were among those making political deals Wednesday, meeting at a Petah Tikvah cafe to choose seven "rebels" for a "hit list" of candidates to avoid, as punishment for creating a rift in the party.
At times like this, we like to gloat:
Sharon suffered a humiliating personal defeat in the Knesset today, when two of his cabinet promotions were rejected by a coalition of Arab parties, far Left members, and Likud rebels. We wonder... whether the Likud rebels who spitefully choose to oppose Sharon on these relatively minor issues are at all uncomfortable with the fact that they've effectively ruined their political careers.
Good riddance to bad rubbish. You can tell that there's a problem when AK Sommer - who despite her protestations we consider to be the blogosphere's uber Israeli insider - has not the slightest bit of a clue who the Likudniks just picked to represent the top of their Knesset list.
The rest of the Likud is in a freefall. Netanyahu ordered the four Likud Cabinet Ministers to resign. They said "not so much." Netanyahu said "how about yes?" So then they said "OK, we'll quit on Sunday". And Netanyahu said "no seriously, do it now". Then only two of them quit. Then three of them quit. Finally all of them quit. Kadima's reaction: mostly amused.
Labor
Also in freefall: the Labor party. Which means: time for more MR gloating.. This particular case of electoral vertigo might have something to do with Peretz's new campaign platform - sure, Hamas is running the Gaza Strip and Islamic Jihad is dominating the northern West Bank, but that's no Israel for Israel not to give land to Fatah. As if they'd be able to keep it out of the hands of the more straight-forward terrorist groups for more than a couple of weeks - assuming that the land isn't immediately taken by Fatah's own Al Aksa Brigades, who have been shooting at their own ministers lately. Maybe Peretz should just go back to saying that there's no difference between the center Kadima and the right Likud - hey, it worked for the Nader people!
The Shinui party found itself facing a major split Thursday after the party council confounded predictions by ousting one of its founders, MK Avraham Poraz, from the No. 2 spot in the elections for the list of Knesset candidates. The shock result immediately caused Poraz and four other party MKs to withdraw from the race, and Shinui chairman Yosef Lapid is considering quitting the party. As expected, Lapid was reelected to the first place on the list. But the 170-member ruling body gave the second spot to Ron Levinthal, a Tel Aviv councillor who has led the party's internal opposition to the Lapid-Poraz duo. Lapid, who bitterly opposed Levinthal's election, has said several times in the past that he would not remain in Shinui if Poraz were not reelected as his deputy... Lapid immediately abandoned the convention hall, telling one MK he was "going on vacation." And half an hour later, Poraz and four other sitting MKs announced that in light of Levinthal's victory, they would not run for any position on Shinui's list.
Kind of puts Lapid's promise that "the flow of voters to Kadima will stop, and Shinui will regain its power soon" in perspective. Well, this is what happens when you put kids in charge of politics. Shinui's youth vote was all about switching generations and elevating Levinthal. The problem with adolescent rebellion, of course, is that someone still has to pay the rent. Currently, it doesn't seem like any of the people who left Shinui will be going to Kadima, but one can always hope.
The rest of our roundup has Kadima way up, Labor and Likud way down.
Kadima
Improbably, polls continue to show Kadima still gaining momentum. This is largely because the rest of the Israeli political spectrum is committed to implosion, but it also must have something to do with this:
It would be very difficult to find a more loyal team than the circle of aides and advisers around Ariel Sharon, but less than 24 hours after his massive stroke they were already briefing reporters on what a wonderful prime minister Ehud Olmert is going to be... Olmert has inherited the best spin-doctors in Israeli politics, who have been planning since Thursday how to carry out what they now see as Sharon's legacy, ensuring Olmert's ascendancy and, even more important for them, making sure that not only will Binyamin Netanyahu not be elected as the next prime minister, but that his defeat will be so humiliating that he will be forced to leave politics forever... In comparison, Peretz is in for lighter treatment. He will be portrayed as unworthy due to his inexperience or, as the aide put it, "Israel doesn't need another unready prime minister," a reference to the not-so-successful premierships of Ehud Barak and Netanyahu.
Crossing anyone in Israeli politics is always a risky affair, "forgiveness" not being their forte. But crossing one of the most tightly knit and loyal political cliques in Israeli history seems, in retrospect, to have been a particularly incautious idea - look below for what some of Omri Sharon's friends did in the Likud this week. These people used to have goals and purposes - in light of Sharon's collapse, they feel that they now instead have duties and obligations.
Likud
Primary season in the Likud is always a party. Several parties, in fact - filled with music and free food and promises of political favors (rumor on the street was that Netanyahu banned the music and free food this year). Primary results were very gratifying - most of the 'rebels' who drove PM Sharon out of the Likud party got trounced like the pathetic burnouts that they are in today's primaries:
Many Likud "rebel" MKs who opposed the disengagement found themselves without a realistic place on the party's Knesset list on Thursday, as the members of the Likud Central Committee voted to determine the party's candidates for the March elections... MK Uzi Landau, the erstwhile head of the anti-pullout "rebels" and former leadership candidate, made the 14th place on the list... Associates of former MK Omri Sharon who remained in the Likud were among those making political deals Wednesday, meeting at a Petah Tikvah cafe to choose seven "rebels" for a "hit list" of candidates to avoid, as punishment for creating a rift in the party.
At times like this, we like to gloat:
Sharon suffered a humiliating personal defeat in the Knesset today, when two of his cabinet promotions were rejected by a coalition of Arab parties, far Left members, and Likud rebels. We wonder... whether the Likud rebels who spitefully choose to oppose Sharon on these relatively minor issues are at all uncomfortable with the fact that they've effectively ruined their political careers.
Good riddance to bad rubbish. You can tell that there's a problem when AK Sommer - who despite her protestations we consider to be the blogosphere's uber Israeli insider - has not the slightest bit of a clue who the Likudniks just picked to represent the top of their Knesset list.
The rest of the Likud is in a freefall. Netanyahu ordered the four Likud Cabinet Ministers to resign. They said "not so much." Netanyahu said "how about yes?" So then they said "OK, we'll quit on Sunday". And Netanyahu said "no seriously, do it now". Then only two of them quit. Then three of them quit. Finally all of them quit. Kadima's reaction: mostly amused.
Labor
Also in freefall: the Labor party. Which means: time for more MR gloating.. This particular case of electoral vertigo might have something to do with Peretz's new campaign platform - sure, Hamas is running the Gaza Strip and Islamic Jihad is dominating the northern West Bank, but that's no Israel for Israel not to give land to Fatah. As if they'd be able to keep it out of the hands of the more straight-forward terrorist groups for more than a couple of weeks - assuming that the land isn't immediately taken by Fatah's own Al Aksa Brigades, who have been shooting at their own ministers lately. Maybe Peretz should just go back to saying that there's no difference between the center Kadima and the right Likud - hey, it worked for the Nader people!
