Israeli Political Roundup - Likud Really Might Have Hit Rock Bottom Edition
New polling has good news for everyone except Likud members not invited to join Sharon's new party:
The Likud is continuing to plummet in the polls, capturing a mere nine seats in the latest Haaretz-Dialog survey, while Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Kadima party continues to gain strength. The poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday among 500 voters, found that if elections were held now, Kadima would win 37 seats, compared to nine for the Likud. Some 65 percent of those who voted Likud in 2003 said that they planned to vote Kadima this time, while only 16 percent said that they definitely plan to stick with the Likud.
Labor is at 26, Shas is at 10, and NRP/National Union is tied with Likud at 9. If this is the same poll they were talking about on the Israel National News web stream earlier today, then it has Shinui at 2 or 3.
Kadima
At the bottom of a misty-eyed history of Sharon and Peres's personal and political friendship, JPost's Gil Hoffman buries notes on Kadima's media strategy:
Perhaps in another country, Sharon's and Peres's combined age of nearly 160 would be considered a liability, but not in Israel. Strategists for Sharon and Peres intend to portray their decades of experience as their ultimate asset in a race against Peretz, who has never been a minister. Expect to see many campaign commercials highlighting Sharon and Peres's service to the state and contrasting it with Peretz's experiences leading strikes that shut down the economy. Kadima's strategists said they were looking for archive material of Sharon and Peres going back decades.
It's enough to warm your heart. Also the part from today's polling about how 44 percent of Israelis want Peres to be Israel's next foreign minister.
Labor
Ha'aretz is reporting that Labor has gotten over Peres's departure. Which is kind of like North Korean radio assuring everyone that there's a bumper wheat crop this year. You have to get through phrases like "victory party" (the word victory is in fact used twice in the very short article) and "new stars" to get to literally the last three paragraphs of the article:
Meanwhile, Labor's moshavim members fear that the party is becoming too left-wing and many of them have crossed over to Kadima... Eitan Ben David, the head of the Moshavim Movement, said the moshav members are traditionally more right-wing and expressed reservations about Peretz's ties with the Sephardi Rainbow Coalition (Hakeshet Hamizrahit), which is fighting for rights on agricultural land.
Populist rural farmers now think that Labor is too far left-wing. And to think that Peretz is such a union thug that Labor might actually win the next election.
Likud
Mofaz and Shalom's primary campaigns kicked off today. If you read nothing else today, read Yossi Verter's overview of the whole campaign:
There is no point in trying to predict what will happen to the Likud in the December 19 primaries. The polls give Netanyahu a significant lead over his competitors in the first and second rounds. But we have already learned that polls cannot predict the results of primaries. Organization is what will determine the outcome. Shalom is convinced that his infrastructure will win, or at least lead to a second round. Mofaz, his associates say, is using his military experience to recruit support. "He is in charge of his own operations," these sources say. "He doesn't rely on anyone." We've already discussed Katz. And as for Netanyahu, he finds himself in Shimon Peres' shoes. He has a lot of sympathy, but it's not clear to what extent he is ready to get people going. Activists in the field complain that his bureau is so hard to reach it's as though he were still at the treasury.
Ha'aretz has the Mofaz kickoff from the he's so anti-Netanyahu angle, while Ynet does the same story from the he so anti-Sharon direction (taking the time to point out no less than three times in one way or another that Mofaz is essentially betraying his mentor by not following Sharon to Kadima). Also this money quote:
Earlier Likud activists called on temporary party leader Tzahi Hanegbi to forward the primaries to stop the decline in the popularity of the party since Sharon’s departure.“We demand the primaries be held next week,” a Likud activist told Ynet.
If that sounds like panic, consider that Benjamin Netanyahu - yesterday's hero of right-wing immigrants - is unable to poll better than 10% in Russian communities today.
In a continuation of Labor and Likud's "make everyone believe Kadima really is a centrist party" strategy, Mofaz also blasted Kadima for being filled with Leftists. In fairness, he also said that Likud is the true centrist party, but seriously - no one believes that. Three words: Likud Central Committee. On a more interesting note, he said he'd leave the Likud in the government till the elections if he's elected Chairman.
One of Mofaz's two real rivals for the Chairmanship, Silvan Shalom kicked off his campaign with a disco version of Phantom of the Opera. That and his 3% approval rating in a general election actually makes him a pretty decent candidate given the options Likud has nowadays. And you know how people make fun of the Likud Central Committee for being corrupt and nepotistic. This should help:
"Showing respect" is what brought Likud's top three candidates, a handful of ministers, a dozen Likud Knesset members, and many more activists to the wedding of youngsters Assaf Uzeri and Dikla Bonish. Uzeri's mother is a prominent central committee member, and her support is crucial for victory... The sight of the red-topped "Judy," [Shalom's wife]... won Shalom praise by one of the guests, an Electric Company worker and Likud member. Bringing one's wife is "a greater show of respect," said the man.
And when that kind of party system brings them less than 15 seats in the next election, just remember that Sharon was trying until the last moment to find a way to stay in the Likud, but was forced out by petty backbenchers and noxious Central Committee members. Remember when Sharon promised to punish the Likud rebels - have we mentioned that that's going to happen:
Senior Likud officials lashed out at disengagement opponents yesterday for causing Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to leave the party, saying that Likud's nosedive in the polls shows that Sharon is taking almost the entire party with him. "Sharon didn't move leftward; he's setting up the new Likud," said one. "It's being built mainly on Likud voters. Essentially, he took the Likud with him." The officials blamed the Likud "rebels," MKs who opposed the disengagement, for the party's collapse in the polls, saying that they were arrogant to have thought that voters would stick with them once Sharon left.
Hey, we knew better.
The Likud is continuing to plummet in the polls, capturing a mere nine seats in the latest Haaretz-Dialog survey, while Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Kadima party continues to gain strength. The poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday among 500 voters, found that if elections were held now, Kadima would win 37 seats, compared to nine for the Likud. Some 65 percent of those who voted Likud in 2003 said that they planned to vote Kadima this time, while only 16 percent said that they definitely plan to stick with the Likud.
Labor is at 26, Shas is at 10, and NRP/National Union is tied with Likud at 9. If this is the same poll they were talking about on the Israel National News web stream earlier today, then it has Shinui at 2 or 3.
Kadima
At the bottom of a misty-eyed history of Sharon and Peres's personal and political friendship, JPost's Gil Hoffman buries notes on Kadima's media strategy:
Perhaps in another country, Sharon's and Peres's combined age of nearly 160 would be considered a liability, but not in Israel. Strategists for Sharon and Peres intend to portray their decades of experience as their ultimate asset in a race against Peretz, who has never been a minister. Expect to see many campaign commercials highlighting Sharon and Peres's service to the state and contrasting it with Peretz's experiences leading strikes that shut down the economy. Kadima's strategists said they were looking for archive material of Sharon and Peres going back decades.
It's enough to warm your heart. Also the part from today's polling about how 44 percent of Israelis want Peres to be Israel's next foreign minister.
Labor
Ha'aretz is reporting that Labor has gotten over Peres's departure. Which is kind of like North Korean radio assuring everyone that there's a bumper wheat crop this year. You have to get through phrases like "victory party" (the word victory is in fact used twice in the very short article) and "new stars" to get to literally the last three paragraphs of the article:
Meanwhile, Labor's moshavim members fear that the party is becoming too left-wing and many of them have crossed over to Kadima... Eitan Ben David, the head of the Moshavim Movement, said the moshav members are traditionally more right-wing and expressed reservations about Peretz's ties with the Sephardi Rainbow Coalition (Hakeshet Hamizrahit), which is fighting for rights on agricultural land.
Populist rural farmers now think that Labor is too far left-wing. And to think that Peretz is such a union thug that Labor might actually win the next election.
Likud
Mofaz and Shalom's primary campaigns kicked off today. If you read nothing else today, read Yossi Verter's overview of the whole campaign:
There is no point in trying to predict what will happen to the Likud in the December 19 primaries. The polls give Netanyahu a significant lead over his competitors in the first and second rounds. But we have already learned that polls cannot predict the results of primaries. Organization is what will determine the outcome. Shalom is convinced that his infrastructure will win, or at least lead to a second round. Mofaz, his associates say, is using his military experience to recruit support. "He is in charge of his own operations," these sources say. "He doesn't rely on anyone." We've already discussed Katz. And as for Netanyahu, he finds himself in Shimon Peres' shoes. He has a lot of sympathy, but it's not clear to what extent he is ready to get people going. Activists in the field complain that his bureau is so hard to reach it's as though he were still at the treasury.
Ha'aretz has the Mofaz kickoff from the he's so anti-Netanyahu angle, while Ynet does the same story from the he so anti-Sharon direction (taking the time to point out no less than three times in one way or another that Mofaz is essentially betraying his mentor by not following Sharon to Kadima). Also this money quote:
Earlier Likud activists called on temporary party leader Tzahi Hanegbi to forward the primaries to stop the decline in the popularity of the party since Sharon’s departure.“We demand the primaries be held next week,” a Likud activist told Ynet.
If that sounds like panic, consider that Benjamin Netanyahu - yesterday's hero of right-wing immigrants - is unable to poll better than 10% in Russian communities today.
In a continuation of Labor and Likud's "make everyone believe Kadima really is a centrist party" strategy, Mofaz also blasted Kadima for being filled with Leftists. In fairness, he also said that Likud is the true centrist party, but seriously - no one believes that. Three words: Likud Central Committee. On a more interesting note, he said he'd leave the Likud in the government till the elections if he's elected Chairman.
One of Mofaz's two real rivals for the Chairmanship, Silvan Shalom kicked off his campaign with a disco version of Phantom of the Opera. That and his 3% approval rating in a general election actually makes him a pretty decent candidate given the options Likud has nowadays. And you know how people make fun of the Likud Central Committee for being corrupt and nepotistic. This should help:
"Showing respect" is what brought Likud's top three candidates, a handful of ministers, a dozen Likud Knesset members, and many more activists to the wedding of youngsters Assaf Uzeri and Dikla Bonish. Uzeri's mother is a prominent central committee member, and her support is crucial for victory... The sight of the red-topped "Judy," [Shalom's wife]... won Shalom praise by one of the guests, an Electric Company worker and Likud member. Bringing one's wife is "a greater show of respect," said the man.
And when that kind of party system brings them less than 15 seats in the next election, just remember that Sharon was trying until the last moment to find a way to stay in the Likud, but was forced out by petty backbenchers and noxious Central Committee members. Remember when Sharon promised to punish the Likud rebels - have we mentioned that that's going to happen:
Senior Likud officials lashed out at disengagement opponents yesterday for causing Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to leave the party, saying that Likud's nosedive in the polls shows that Sharon is taking almost the entire party with him. "Sharon didn't move leftward; he's setting up the new Likud," said one. "It's being built mainly on Likud voters. Essentially, he took the Likud with him." The officials blamed the Likud "rebels," MKs who opposed the disengagement, for the party's collapse in the polls, saying that they were arrogant to have thought that voters would stick with them once Sharon left.
Hey, we knew better.
