Baby Steps
Finally, reliable demographic numbers are starting to emerge. As of 5:09am EST, CNN has this to say about Jewish voters:
The president, for example, garnered 47 percent of the female vote, up 4 percent from 2000, while Bush lost the Latino vote -- winning 42 percent to Kerry's 55 percent. Other candidates split the remainder -- he gained 7 points from four years ago, which could have made a difference in states like Florida and New Mexico with large Latino or Hispanic populations.
Another 5% of American Jews willing to consider Israel's security in their vote. Only about 75% to go. On the other hand, Ha'aretz reports that the Foreign Ministry pulled a Nader (and not in that "only supported by 1% of the population kind of way", although that's probably true too) and concluded that there's no difference between Bush and Kerry:
The study is said to have concluded that Kerry, seeking to improve relations with Europe, would form a diplomatic alliance in an effort to press Israel to return to the road map peace plan, with the aim of forging a permanent Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
If Bush wins re-election, the report continues, he will need to deal with the Iraqi stalemate, while seeking to restore America's image in the Arab world. Both elements could lead to a change of the current administration's positions, which have been seen by both Israelis and Palestinians as strongly consistent with those of the Sharon government.
This is unpersuasive for a couple of reasons. First of all, I wouldn't trust the Israeli Foreign Ministry to give me the time. These are people consistently surprised that the UN is a platform for anti-Israel resolutions. Secondly, I still hope that Bush will increase the US's stature in the Arab world by finally expelling the insurgents from Fallujah, thereby showing that the US is serious about bringing democracy to Iraq. Two birds, one stone. But all of this analysis is premature, because Bush gives a wide berth to his foreign policy team, and no one knows what that team is going to look like yet. If Paul Wolfowitz becomes the new Secretary of Defense, I have a difficult time believing that he'll turn Israel into Czechoslovakia.
The president, for example, garnered 47 percent of the female vote, up 4 percent from 2000, while Bush lost the Latino vote -- winning 42 percent to Kerry's 55 percent. Other candidates split the remainder -- he gained 7 points from four years ago, which could have made a difference in states like Florida and New Mexico with large Latino or Hispanic populations.
Another 5% of American Jews willing to consider Israel's security in their vote. Only about 75% to go. On the other hand, Ha'aretz reports that the Foreign Ministry pulled a Nader (and not in that "only supported by 1% of the population kind of way", although that's probably true too) and concluded that there's no difference between Bush and Kerry:
The study is said to have concluded that Kerry, seeking to improve relations with Europe, would form a diplomatic alliance in an effort to press Israel to return to the road map peace plan, with the aim of forging a permanent Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
If Bush wins re-election, the report continues, he will need to deal with the Iraqi stalemate, while seeking to restore America's image in the Arab world. Both elements could lead to a change of the current administration's positions, which have been seen by both Israelis and Palestinians as strongly consistent with those of the Sharon government.
This is unpersuasive for a couple of reasons. First of all, I wouldn't trust the Israeli Foreign Ministry to give me the time. These are people consistently surprised that the UN is a platform for anti-Israel resolutions. Secondly, I still hope that Bush will increase the US's stature in the Arab world by finally expelling the insurgents from Fallujah, thereby showing that the US is serious about bringing democracy to Iraq. Two birds, one stone. But all of this analysis is premature, because Bush gives a wide berth to his foreign policy team, and no one knows what that team is going to look like yet. If Paul Wolfowitz becomes the new Secretary of Defense, I have a difficult time believing that he'll turn Israel into Czechoslovakia.
