Old CW: the Middle East is “everybody vs. Israel.” New CW, for at least some people at least for some of the time: the Middle East is “Israel and US-backed Arab states vs. Iran and its state and non-state proxies.” Much less pithy, and – for a bunch of reasons – orders of magnitude less straightforward. We can start with the central problem, which is that no one knows whether it really is the new geopolitical situation. After that’s resolved there are questions of how stable the redrawn map is, to what degree Sunni antisemitism influences their thinking, whether nation-state calculations pushing Arab countries into the Iranian orbit are outweighed by sectarian antipathy for Shiites, and so on.
Ergo tonight’s episode of One Jerusalem Radio’s Omri Ceren Show, on the Sunni/Shiite rift and its consequences. Last week was handed over to the intentions and capabilities of Israel’s Iran-backed enemies. This week we’ll do the other side of the divide. As always you can tune in live to ask questions via phone and chatroom, or just pick up the podcast afterward.
Rounding out the geopolitics stuff – Egypt, Yemen, and Iraq if we get to it – I’ll also have a segment on the hit that the Mossad may or may not have carried out in Dubai. It’s relevant because the vigor with which Dubai is conducting their investigation is tied to their suspicions of Hamas. It’s also kind of awesome.
Harold Rhode – senior Hudson Institute advisor, former Middle East and Islamic World analyst in Rumsfeld’s Defense Department, decades-long Pentagon specialist, etc – makes a brief appearance via phone. He gives his evaluation on the odds that Sunni/Shiite tensions might solidify some kind of Israeli/Sunni pact. Teaser: not great.
As always Dan Diker joins the show from Israel. He’s got a broad overview on the topic – one of many on which he’s counted an expert – plus a bunch of specific details. In fact here he is interviewing Bernard Lewis on “The Sunni-Shiite Split and the Iranian Threat” at the just-concluded Jerusalem Conference. Keep in mind that Lewis arguably the greatest Orientalist alive and look out for the line “there is a scenario for the end of time… [and] in the view of a certain section within the Iranian leadership… that time is now.” Sweet dreams!
That and more in a few hours.
References:
* The Erstwhile Sunni/Shiite Rift [Omri Ceren Show]
* Israeli security officials convinced Mossad behind Dubai slaying [AP]
* Israel: No reason to think Mossad killed Hamas man [AP]
* The Sunni-Shiite Split and the Iranian Threat [JCPA]
Related Mere Rhetoric Categories:
* The Omri Ceren Show
* Political Islam
* Arab and Muslim World
