These fearless predictions always turn out disasterously for me, but nonetheless: I think that the widespread rumors about how Israel is considering a 48-hour truce are flat false. I’m not sure if it’s Israeli misinformation – the second time in a week where Barak’s public hesitancy is being used as a head-fake – or if it’s just an “anonymously sourced” excuse for breathless “Israel rejects ceasefire” headlines (as if Hamas wasn’t categorically rejecting any renewed truce just like they’ve always done). But in any case it makes no sense.
Let’s take it as a given that that Hamas can’t accept a ceasefire after the last four days because it would make it look like they’d been ground into submission. Let’s also take it as a given that the post-Peretz Defense Ministry isn’t staffed by idiots – so they know that. Why would they float rumors of a ceasefire if – acknowledging ahead of time that Hamas will reject it – they know it would make them look weak? The only possible reason is that they were hoping that it would give them a propaganda boon: a news cycle of “Hamas rejects Israeli truce offer” headlines. But only an idiot would think that newspapers would go with that frame rather than “Resilient Hamas turns Israeli truce plea” headlines. But the post-Peretz Defense Ministry is not staffed by idiots. Ergo they didn’t float a ceasefire. QED.
Plus both the defense establishment and Barak say it’s not true. You could say that they’re just trying to save face after Hamas rejected the offer. But – again – they would have known in advance that Hamas would reject the offer which means they would never would have put themselves in a position where they’d lose face.
Not to get too inside baseball, but I do kind of have a perverse incentive to believe that Barak is actually pushing for a ceasefire. It sort of appeals to my muddy pragmatism. First it establishes a clear distinction between the Israeli center and the Israeli left, highlighting the stupidity of protest votes. It also makes Ben-Eliezer look good and I’ve had a soft spot for him ever since Sharon joked that he routinely talked him out of launching anti-terrorist operations. But alas, I just don’t think it’s true.
Although I don’t discount the possibility that some mid-level MFA staffer, not understanding how the story would framed as Hamas tenacity vs. Israeli hesitancy out, leaked it to Ha’aretz. That I’d easily believe.
References and previously after the jump…
References:
* PM, Barak appear split on cease-fire [JPost]
* LAT: Israel Launched “Surprise Offensive” To Win “Favorable Terms” (Plus: Even Hamas Can’t Pretend They Didn’t Trigger Current Round Of Fighting) [MR]
* Israel rejects truce, presses on with Gaza strikes [Reuters]
* One-Third Of Hamas Launchers Too Deep In Residential Areas To Hit By Jet (Plus: Temporary Truce Rumors Debunked?) [MR]
* Hamas: No, Of Course We’re Not Renewing The Ceasefire That We Never Obeyed In The First Place [MR]
* Hamas: As A Reminder, We’re Not Renewing The Ceasefire We’ve Been Breaking On A Daily Basis [MR]
* Moronic Former Israeli Defense Minister: You Know What Would Be Really Cool? Foreign Peacekeepers In Gaza. [MR]
* IDF denies exploring possible ceasefire in Gaza op [YNet]
* Barak Denies Backing France on Ceasefire; Cabinet To Meet Again [A7]
* Official: Israel won’t accept humanitarian pause [YNet]
* Israel mulls brief truce but warns assault could last weeks [AFP]
* Do They Just Get To Make Things Up Now? [MR]
Previously:
* Barak: No Seriously, The Rockets Will Stop Or The IDF Will Stop The Rockets
* Hamas Heavily Armed, Skeptical About Israeli Commitment To Self-Defense
* Iranian-Hezbollah-Hamas Axis Weighing Preferred Method For Murdering Israeli Leaders
