Israel Politics Roundup – Kadima Polling Outside The Margin, Ahead Of Likud In Upcoming Election

Hey, real quick before I get to the political stuff: there’s a new meme developing that blames the collapse of the peace process on Livni’s decision to call elections. Just for the record – Hamas was already set to take over the Palestinian Authority within the next months, which would have had a less than copacetic effect on negotiations. And also, come on.

Now that that’s out of the way – I’m really starting to hate elections:

A day after Kadima leader Tzipi Livni handed back the mandate President Shimon Peres gave her last month to form a government, new opinion polls gave Kadima a small edge over Likud. A poll by the Dahaf Research Institute showed Kadima winning 29 of the Knesset’s 120 seats and Likud taking 26. Meanwhile, Labor was projected to win 11 seats, compared with the 19 mandates it holds in the current Knesset. A TNS Teleseker survey gives Kadima 31 seats to Likud’s 29.

I’m skeptical. I know that last week I wrote about how Livni was taking the best political option available by pinning the government breakdown on Shas. But Aluf Benn thinks otherwise and he actually knows stuff. And I know that right before that I wrote about how Likud is going out of its way to lose the election by forcing Mofaz to stay in Kadima (which is exactly what happened). But even with Mofaz back as Livni’s security fig leaf, Kadima should still be splitting the social vote with Labor and Netanyahu should still be getting the bulk of the national security vote.

I don’t have the crosstabs for these two polls, but still – makes. no. sense. The Labor thing makes sense – keeping an unpopular Prime Minister in power while transfering weapons to the Palestinians is apparently not the way into the Israeli public’s heart. But is the national security vote really only worth 26 seats? Yeah there are some signs that the Israeli public is less than resolved when it comes to forming a united front against terrorism. But soldier abductions are kind of a national pathology so it’s hard to extrapolate, plus there’s plenty of evidence going the other way. And the polls that show overwhelming support for land-for-peace swaps are hardly unequivocal.

Best guess if the numbers fade: it was an anti-Shas boost. Best guess if the numbers hold up: no idea. Maybe strong anti-settler sentiment?

In the meantime, go read erstwhile Obama shill Shmuel Rosner’s new article on Shas’s political power. Sure it’s not as bold or prescient as my fearless Sept. 21 prediction that Shas would leave Livni out to dry and trigger new elections. But it’s longer and smarter and your only other option is to go read another poll about how the most anti-Israel Presidential candidate ever is about to become Commander of Chief.

References and previously behind the jump…

References:
* ‘Livni’s decision kills peace process’ [JPost]
* Abbas To Lead Fatah-Hamas Unity Govt Through 2010 (Plus: Zero Agreement On Any Peace Process Issue) [MR]
* Mere Rhetoric: Palestinians Hold Funeral For Peace Process [Video] [MR]
* Polls: Kadima to get 29-31 seats, Likud 26-29, Labor just 11 [JPost]
* Livni: Good Chance Israel’s Going To Elections This Sunday [MR]
* ANALYSIS / Does failure to form a gov’t make Tzipi Livni a loser? [Ha'aretz]
* Israeli Politics Roundup – Likud Already Gearing Up To Lose Election Through Arrogance, Spite [MR]
* Mofaz comes back, caves in to Livni [JPost]
* So saith the pussy cat [Ha'aretz]
* Barak confirms transfer of armored vehicles to PA [Ha'aretz]
* Firm majority for Hizbullah swap deal [JPost]
* New Data Confirms Old Data: “Israelis Are Demoralized” Is A Vicious Lie [MR]
* Poll: 70% of Israelis back 2-state pact, 63% oppose Golan pull-out [Ha'aretz]
* Livni: Israel not expanding settlements [JPost]
* Top Obama Adviser Explains Iraq War: Turns Out, It’s The Jews’ Fault. Again. (Plus: Ha’aretz Political Correspondent’s Pro-Obama Apologism Getting Increasingly Desperate) [MR]
* Shas Says No [Commentary]
* Olmert Resigning, Livni To Try To Form New Coalition. Unofficial Election Countdown Begins Now. [MR]