Olmert’s resigning today and Livni has almost no possibility of forming a new coalition. Some people think she does, but – unless Shas beats their own previous record for shamelessness – those people are wrong. I was actually surprised that she even beat Mofaz, given how he was clearly the better candidate. But then I remembered that about one-half of Kadima’s primary voters are ex-Labor primary voters. Which means that about one-half of Kadima’s primary voters have the collective IQ of a sack of turnips. Which clarified things for me. If you want anything more specific, Meryl has a pretty decent roundup of reactions.
So there should be new elections in about a month and a half:
After Livni is declared the party leader, Olmert formally submits resignation to President Shimon Peres. The cabinet resigns with him. After consulting with party leaders, Peres picks a member of the Knesset, most likely Livni, to form a new coalition government. The prime minister designate has 42 days to form a new coalition and bring it to the Knesset for approval. If no new government is formed, a general election is held within 90 days. The process of forming government begins all over again. Olmert remains in office as caretaker prime minister until a new government is approved by the Knesset.
There will have three realistic candidates. Two of those candidates will have been previously voted out of office as diplomatic and/or military failures. The third will have functionally zero relevant experience running a country under diplomatic and/or military siege. In between preemptively signaling land concessions in Israel and abroad, she’s occassionally tried to solve terrorism by supplying Hamas with human shields. Not coincidentally, she’s getting warm words from Assad and Abbas.
I really could not be more excited for the next few months.
* Olmert to give resignation to Peres Sunday evening [Ha'aretz]
* ANALYSIS / Even Assad has a better opinion of Livni than Barak [Ha'aretz]
* Israeli Political Roundup – Labor Voters are Total Fucking Idiots Edition [MR]
* Livni roundup [Yourish]
* After Livni’s victory in Kadima race, what happens next? [Ha'aretz]
* Livni criticizes settlement plan [YNet]
* Livni to discuss Arab initiative in Cairo [YNet]
* Livni to push for international force in Gaza [JPost]
* Abbas welcomes Livni’s Kadima victory [JPost]
* Israel’s Olmert announces Sunday resignation [Wash Times]
* Israel Politics Roundup – 2007-05-02 – Olmert Not Looking So Great
* Hamas Brags About Violating Truce, More Rockets Fall On Israeli Schools And Hospitals
* Statement by FM Livni on attack from Lebanon