Shaul Mofaz, who knows a lot more about the security situation in Israel than anyone on the blogosphere, is convinced that disengagement from Gaza will decrease terrorism:
Mofaz is convinced that the disengagement will enhance Israel’s security. He does not expect terrorism to disappear but to be shifted to the West Bank, where the Israel Defense Forces has greater operational flexibility. The major threat that will remain in the Gaza Strip is the firing of Qassam rockets. However, according to Mofaz, after the disengagement Israel will have at its disposal an economic and military “toolbox,” which will enable it to create effective deterrence in the face of the Qassams.
Notice he didn’t say that disengagement would decrease the Palestinians’ motivation for terrorism. His point is that that Israel will be better able to combat Palestinian terrorism once the Gaza withdrawal is complete. While our support for disengagement was based on the diplomatic situation and not the security situation (as Lynn-B said, “you’ve been one of the ones who said ‘expect more terror but we have to do it anyway’… for anyone to hold up terrorist attacks as evidence that you were wrong would be poor form.”) But wouldn’t it be nice if it helped Israel in the security arena too?
