Potential Disaster

Are Likud voters really stupid enough to throw away the historically unprecedented situation that Sharon has created for withdrawal? Take it as axiomatic that Israel will eventually have to leave Gaza – everybody knows that those settlements are going to be the first to go under any peace deal. Sharon has worked it out so that the withdrawal is about as close to a victory as Israel is going to get – there will never be another White House that will let Israel knock out the entire leadership of Hamas while it withdraws, which means that by definition when Israel finally withdraws it will take more of a deterrence hit. You think when Israel withdraws “in the context of a peace deal” Hamas won’t claim it as a victory? You think when Israel withdrawing “in the context of a peace deal” Hamas won’t desecrate the synagogues in the settlements? Literally every example we have – Hebron, Jericho, etc – goes the other way, with gunfire and celebrations in the streets and loudspeakers declaring victory as Israeli troops and settlers withdrew in shame. This is a withdrawal of strength – I hope the Likud doesn’t blow it.